Supply Flows Resume

Wednesday, June 17, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures settled ~$75.39 (Jun 16), live quotes Jun 17 showing $76.30-$76.48. Fade trade accelerating. DEAL STATUS: Preliminary MOU reached Jun 14-15. Virtual signing reported. Formal signing ceremony Friday, Jun 19, Geneva. DEAL TERMS: 60-day ceasefire extension. Strait of Hormuz reopening, toll-free period expected. US naval blockade on Iranian ports lifted. Nuclear talks deferred to follow-up. IMPLICATION: Crude crashed from $90-$100 highs earlier Jun to $75-$76 now. That's $15-$25 drop in 3 weeks. Geopolitical premium gone. Supply flows resume. Oversupply thesis intact. Target was $70-$75. We're there. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $80. Target $70. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (released Jun 11, covers week ending Jun 5): Total working gas 2,686 Bcf. Weekly net change +108 Bcf injection. Year-over-year 5 Bcf lower than Jun 2025. 5-year average 151 Bcf (+6%) above average 2,535 Bcf. REGIONAL BREAKDOWN: East 514 Bcf (+34, 2.2% above 5-yr avg). Midwest 610 Bcf (+37, 3.9% above 5-yr avg). Mountain 222 Bcf (+4, 29.8% above 5-yr avg). Pacific 304 Bcf (+6, 27.2% above 5-yr avg). South Central 1,037 Bcf (+28, 0.2% above 5-yr avg). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. No weather shock yet. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Next storage report Jun 18 (week ending Jun 12). BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75-$76 target zone. Short any bounces above $80. Target $70. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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Episoder(217)

Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

Friday, July 3, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: ECUADOR. CURRENT PRODUCTION LEVELS: Ecuador's crude oil production averaged ~461,000-466,000 bbl/d Jan-Feb 2026. Daily lifts reported ~452,817-458,207 bbl/d...

3 Jul 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

Thursday, July 2, 2026. GEOGRAPHIC SPOTLIGHT: BELARUS. PRODUCTION OVERVIEW: Belarus produced ~25,000 bbl/d early 2026 (well below historical avg 33,650 bbl/d since 1993). Production reached 30-year hi...

2 Jul 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE...

1 Jul 3min

Technicals: Week 27

Tuesday, June 30, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $70. Recent closes ~$70.04-$70.42. Intraday range $69-$71 area. KEY LEVELS: Psychological support zone $70 (key round-number level). Imme...

30 Jun 2min

Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday clo...

29 Jun 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

Friday, June 26, 2026. WEEK 26 COMPLETE. Twenty-six weeks running. The thesis delivers again. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Monday opened $74.82 (deal live, Hormuz open, geopolitical premium intact). Tuesday techn...

26 Jun 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Jun 2min

EIA Inventory Report: Draws Continue

Wednesday, June 24, 2026. EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORY REPORT RELEASED TODAY. Week ending June 19. Released June 24 at 10:30 AM ET. MOST RECENT DATA: EIA report released Jun 17 for week ending Jun 12: Comm...

24 Jun 2min