SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver

Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether investors should chase the strongest trends, how different asset classes contribute to returns across market cycles, and why overfitting remains one of the biggest dangers in systematic investing. They also discuss the rise of AI generated trading strategies, the debate around perpetual futures, the changing role of economic data, and what diversification really means when markets become driven by a handful of dominant forces.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and summer optimism in the UK

02:10 - Middle East developments, SpaceX and the new Fed Chair

06:13 - Concerns about economic data and market transparency

10:38 - Trend following performance and current market positioning

14:39 - How Rob evaluates strategies and portfolio construction

19:57 - The factor zoo and true sources of return

22:37 - What trend following adds beyond traditional risk premia

29:54 - The rise of perpetual futures and exchange concerns

42:35 - Quantica research on trend performance across asset classes

55:01 - Why commodities have become a dominant source of trend returns

56:06 - AI generated trading strategies and the risk of overfitting

01:05:48 - Drawdowns, diversification and lessons from recent research

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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