Top Economist: This Is What "Always" Happens Before a Housing Market Crash

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Top Economist Steve Keen exposes how “help-to-buy” style policies in Australia (and beyond) inflated house prices, enriched landlords, and pushed home ownership out of reach for younger generations. Using BIS data and Ravel demos, Steve shows why the real driver isn’t “shortage” — it’s mortgage debt growth and the political choice to treat housing as an asset class, not a basic need.

In this hard-hitting breakdown, you’ll discover:

✅ Why first-home buyer grants and LMI waivers pump prices instead of helping buyers

✅ How mortgage debt growth (and its acceleration) drives house prices in multiple countries

✅ Why the US subprime story is only mid-pack globally — and why Australia, Canada, NZ, UK went further

✅ The landlord windfall effect: policies that look helpful individually but are disastrous collectively

✅ Ownership reality check: outright owners down, mortgages and renters up since the late 1980s

✅ How “credit-based demand” props up GDP while trapping households in decades of debt

✅ Why politicians keep doing it — and what a price-down policy agenda would require

KEY INSIGHTS:

• Treating housing as an asset class has produced real house price rises of several multiples since the 1970s in most advanced economies.

• Rising mortgage debt causes rising house prices; the tightest links show up when you track changes in the change of mortgage debt.

• Australia repeatedly “saved” prices with grants and boosts, shifting credit cycles without fixing affordability.

• The result: fewer outright owners, more mortgaged households, more renters — and stagnation as income services debt instead of spending and investment.

This isn’t “supply and demand” on a whiteboard. It’s the math of bank-created credit meeting political incentives — and the bill landing on younger households.

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What’s your view — should governments target lower house prices rather than “help-to-buy” boosts? Add your thoughts below.

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Who is Dr. Steve Keen?

Dr. Steve Keen is an economist known for accounting-consistent, data-driven models that explain how bank money and private debt drive booms, busts, and asset bubbles. Creator of the Minsky and Ravel tools, he focuses on real-world dynamics instead of textbook myths — essential for engineers, finance professionals, and anyone who wants operational clarity over ideology.

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