How Russia Could Beat NATO, War of Attrition over Taiwan, and How Ukraine Turned the Tide

Franz-Stefan Gady just played the Russian Chief of General Staff in a German war game — and won. He joins Dmitri Alperovitch to explain how he manufactured a NATO crisis in the summer of 2026, why the U.S. is built for the wrong war over Taiwan, and how Ukraine quietly turned its fortunes around heading into 2026.

In this episode:

How Russia could beat NATO without firing on it. Inside the Bundeswehr war game where Gady cut off the Baltics with a "humanitarian corridor" into Lithuania, an information-warfare campaign that split European politics, and nuclear saber-rattling aimed at Berlin — and his unsettling conclusion that Russia may not need a ground invasion at all.

A war of attrition over Taiwan. Why sinking China's invasion fleet — the celebrated "hellscape" — is the easy part, and what happens on "day after" once U.S. precision munitions run dry and Xi refuses to go home. Alperovitch and Gady debate whether denial alone wins anything, and how a conflict neither side can decisively win punishes whoever has the weaker defense-industrial base.

How Ukraine turned the tide. Stabilized manpower, a cleaner chain of command, a real edge in unmanned warfare (helped by Starlink finally going dark for Russian units), and a new mid and long-range strike advantage — set against the relentless Donbas grind and the debate over whether drones have killed maneuver warfare or just split the sky in two.

00:00 Introduction

00:58 How Russia Could Defeat NATO: A War Game

07:42 Potential Russian Air Campaign Against Europe

09:48 Result of the Russia-NATO War Game

13:13 German Brigade in Lithuania: Obstacle for Russia?

15:34 Can Russia Achieve Strategic Surprise?

17:10 How to Defend the Baltics

24:04 NATO's Deficiencies in Ballistic Missiles

27:28 US-China Conflict: Could It Turn Into a War of Attrition?

29:35 Maritime vs. Land Warfare: The Taiwan Dilemma

35:10 What Happens After the PLA Fleet is Sunk?

40:48 Ukrainian Military Successes in 2026

48:15 Are Conditions Right for the Return of Maneuver Warfare?

49:36 Splitting the Air Space: High and Low Altitude Air Superiority