27. Why the Old Political Order Is Cracking | Populism, MAGA, and the Future of Democracy

For generations, politics in Europe and America was dominated by large, stable political parties. Today, those old political alignments are breaking down.

Why are voters abandoning established parties? Why are populist movements gaining strength across the West? And what does this transformation mean for the future of democracy?

In this episode of Tocqueville Talks, Furman University political scientists Brent Nelsen and James Guth discuss new research on the rise of populist politics in Europe and the United States. Drawing on their recent work on the 2024 European Parliamentary elections and a new comparative study of populist movements across Western democracies, they examine the growing influence of movements that challenge political establishments, question international institutions, and reshape traditional political coalitions.

The conversation explores the major populist movements of Europe—including the European Conservatives and Reformists, Patriots for Europe, Europe of Sovereign Nations, Reform UK, and France's National Rally—and compares them to the MAGA movement in the United States.

Among the episode's most intriguing findings is that the European populist right is far from unified. Some parties are deeply religious, others largely secular. Some are strongly pro-Ukraine, while others are more sympathetic to Russia. Some embrace welfare-state policies, while others increasingly favor free-market economics. These differences help explain why Europe's populist parties have struggled to form a single political bloc despite sharing many common concerns.

The discussion draws on two recent scholarly projects by Guth and Nelsen. The first, “Party Choice in the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections: Old and New Cleavages Among Parliamentary Groups,” examines voting patterns in the 2024 European Parliamentary elections and finds important differences among the major right-wing parliamentary groups, particularly regarding religion, social values, and national identity. The second, “Right-Wing Populists in Western Democracies: Avatars of the Culture Wars?” compares populist movements in Europe, Great Britain, and the United States, asking whether MAGA should be understood as part of a broader transatlantic populist movement.

Topics include:

• The rise of populism across the West

• MAGA and European political movements

• Why traditional political parties are weakening

• Immigration and national identity

• Religion and political realignment

• Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and Nigel Farage

• Ukraine and divisions within the political right

• Political polarization

• Democratic institutions and constitutional government

• The future of democracy in Europe and America

The episode concludes with a broader question:

Are populist movements revitalizing democratic politics by giving voice to neglected voters—or are they weakening the institutions that have sustained democratic government for generations?

Research discussed in this episode includes:

James L. Guth and Brent F. Nelsen, “Party Choice in the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections: Old and New Cleavages Among Parliamentary Groups,” in Arguing Religion and Politics: Populism, Secularism, and Church-State Relations, eds. Marko Vedović and Miroljub Jevtić (Palgrave Macmillan, 2025), pp. 61–83.

James L. Guth and Brent F. Nelsen, “Right-Wing Populists in Western Democracies: Avatars of the Culture Wars?” Prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the Conference of Europeanists, Dublin, Ireland, June 16–18, 2026.