Predicting AI: Rob Toews' scorecard from the frontier

Predicting AI: Rob Toews' scorecard from the frontier

Every December, Rob Toews publishes ten AI predictions in Forbes, then comes back a year later and grades himself in public. That habit of putting a stake in the ground, and owning the misses, makes him one of the more interesting voices in the space. In this conversation with Jon Wulkan, he explains why the frontier has narrowed to a handful of Western labs, why even well-resourced challengers have struggled to keep pace, and why the much-feared "SaaS apocalypse" is probably overdone. They also dig into the economics underneath the hype: why model prices are likely to rise once the big IPOs land, why one of the three remaining frontier players has a structural funding edge the others can't match, and why an obscure accounting question about chip depreciation could reprice the entire AI infrastructure trade. Along the way, Toews reaches for a comparison that sticks: we're building data centers that draw twice the power of San Francisco, while the human brain runs on 20 watts. His advice for vertical software CEOs? Hire for slope, not y-intercept..

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Episoder(64)

The rogue agent problem: A conversation with Gil Elbaz at the Hg Digital Summit

The rogue agent problem: A conversation with Gil Elbaz at the Hg Digital Summit

In this episode, John Cranmer is joined by Gil Elbaz, Co-Founder and Chief AI Officer at Onyx Security, the company building the secure AI control plane for the agentic era. Gil, formerly in the CTO o...

10 Jun 34min

Patrick Debois on why context is the new code: A conversation from the Hg Digital Summit

Patrick Debois on why context is the new code: A conversation from the Hg Digital Summit

The inventor of DevOps explains why AI needs engineering rigour and human collaboration. The engineer who coined "DevOps" in 2009 thinks he is watching the same pattern play out again, only faster. I...

28 Mai 30min

Jonathan Sanders, CEO of Light: fear is not a strategy

Jonathan Sanders, CEO of Light: fear is not a strategy

When Jonathan Sanders pitched Light to investors, the reaction was unanimous: rebuilding ERP would take a decade and a hundred million dollars. He did it in two years, with AI at the core. Today Light...

15 Mai 54min

Evan Goldberg of NetSuite: 3 decades and 2 platform shifts

Evan Goldberg of NetSuite: 3 decades and 2 platform shifts

Evan Goldberg co-founded NetSuite in 1998 with a five-minute phone call to Larry Ellison when his "graphics stuff" wasn't going great. He pioneered cloud computing before SaaS existed, sold to Oracle ...

23 Apr 31min

Marjorie Janiewicz of Mistral AI: flipping the adoption curve - why SaaS with data can win in an AI world

Marjorie Janiewicz of Mistral AI: flipping the adoption curve - why SaaS with data can win in an AI world

Marjorie Janiewicz has sold enterprise software through every platform shift for three decades: Oracle, MySQL, SAP, MongoDB, HackerOne. Now as Chief Revenue Officer at Mistral AI, she's taking a Frenc...

17 Mar 51min

The race for alpha: Varun Anand of Clay on inventing a new role and why GTM needs a new AI strategy

The race for alpha: Varun Anand of Clay on inventing a new role and why GTM needs a new AI strategy

Most B2B software founders don't spend four years working on presidential campaigns. Varun Anand did - on Hillary Clinton's 2016 run - and he argues that startups and political campaigns share the sam...

3 Mar 22min

Everything, everywhere, but not all at once: Hg’s Matthew Brockman on what's really happening in software right now

Everything, everywhere, but not all at once: Hg’s Matthew Brockman on what's really happening in software right now

In this rare internal conversation, Matthew Brockman, Hg's Chief Investment Officer, offers an insider's view on what's actually working versus what's still hype. Far beyond speculation, this is priva...

20 Feb 38min

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