Not Since the Dot-Com Bubble | The Vol Signal Flashing for the First Time in 20 Years

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma is back for The OPEX Effect to explain why July options expiration could remove a major source of market support and open the door to a volatility spike or stock market correction. We examine positive gamma, ultra-low S&P 500 implied volatility, near-record-low correlation, extreme Nasdaq volatility, AI stock dispersion and why the current setup resembles July 2024 before a 10% drawdown.

Brent Kochuba on X
https://x.com/spotgamma

SpotGamma
https://spotgamma.com

Main topics covered

Why markets have become numb to geopolitical risk, war headlines and oil volatility
How market-maker hedging, positive gamma and systematic options selling stabilize stocks
Why OPEX and VIX expiration can create a window of weakness or a window of strength
How ETF growth, leveraged products and new listings create additional options exposure
Why July OPEX is small for the S&P 500 but meaningful for AI and semiconductor stocks
What happened to SpaceX volatility after traders sold expensive calls and puts
Why expensive implied volatility can make put options lose money even when a stock falls
What extreme COR1M and dispersion reveal about the divide beneath the market averages
Why S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection while Nasdaq volatility resembles a meme stock
Why the VXN-VIX spread and July 2024 analog have Brent preparing for a potential correction

Timestamps

00:00 Why markets are ignoring geopolitical risk
05:16 How systematic options flows stabilize stocks
09:33 Gamma squeezes and why OPEX can reset market trends
13:37 Positive gamma and suppressed daily volatility
17:41 How new listings and ETFs feed into options markets
21:48 Why July OPEX is concentrated in single stocks
25:48 Reviewing June guardrails and the AI stock correction
30:39 July gamma support and the post-OPEX window of weakness
38:34 Near-record-low correlation and a fragile market setup
44:20 S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection
48:31 Why options are serially underpricing volatility
52:31 How AI could reshape the Nasdaq and its volatility
57:54 Why July 2024 may be the key OPEX analog
01:02:02 Brent's market risk outlook and hedging plan

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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Episoder(36)

Big Rally Collides with Oil and Rate Reality | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to break down September options expiration, the S&P 500's negative gamma risk, and what options positioning reveals about potential stock market vol...

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Big Semi Decline. Big Rally. Big Macro Risk | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba break down how options expiration, 0DTE trading, dealer gamma and leveraged flows are shaping the stock market. Th...

15 Aug 51min

SpaceX, OPEX, and the Flows Behind the Biggest IPO in History

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for...

13 Jun 1h 7min

The Melt Up That No One Expected | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX cal...

9 Mai 1h 6min

The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to a...

11 Apr 1h 8min

A 3% Drop from VIX 40 | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. ...

20 Mar 1h 9min

Violently Going Nowhere | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves benea...

15 Feb 1h 6min