Banks forecast 10% property drop: Is the Australian market crashing?

In this episode of Australian Property Podcast, Pete Wargent and Chris Bates analyse the deepening housing market downturn and what it means for buyers, sellers, investors and first-home buyers in 2026. The conversation covers the latest CoreLogic data showing capital city values down 1.3% in the June quarter, auction clearance rates slipping below 50%, and a drop in sales volumes. Pete shares his on-the-ground view that many prices are already 10-15% off peak levels but appear to have levelled off in recent weeks, with few genuine fire sales thanks to strong employment. Pete and Chris examine the Federal Budget’s limited impact on home ownership rates, the SMSF lending ban wiping out potential gains from new housing initiatives, evaporating new home sales, and falling unit approvals. They discuss shifting sentiment in key markets — including Brisbane homeowners pulling sales and the forecast that Brisbane could soon overtake Sydney as the most expensive unit market — alongside inflation easing and banks revising 2026 price forecasts downward (with some predicting 5-10% national falls). Main stories include “Budget buyer’s remorse” — why first-home buyer applications have slowed despite policy support — and a detailed look at what a further house price fall would actually mean for Australians. Drawing on 30 years of history analysed by ABC News Business, they highlight that past corrections have been relatively shallow (average -2.9%) while subsequent recoveries have been strong (+32% on average). They explore risks of negative equity for recent buyers, the chance of a larger correction, Sydney’s role as the market canary, and why fundamentals (jobs, rates, yields) still matter more than headlines. The episode finishes with two practical listener questions: Chris shares the biggest structuring lessons from scaling Alcove and advising clients — particularly the one principle that separates successful long-term investors from those who get stuck or over-leveraged. And Pete offers advice on how regular buyers can realistically access off-market and pre-market deals without a buyer’s agent. Along the way, Pete and Chris offer strategic advice for buyers and sellers in nervous conditions, discuss wealth transfer opportunities, refinancing dynamics, and the importance of thinking long-term when sentiment shifts fast. If you want a clear-eyed, data-driven weekly snapshot of Australia’s housing market — from downturn realities and policy impacts to practical investing and buying tactics — this episode is essential listening right now. Episode resources – Ask a question (select the Property podcast) Show partner resources – Join Pearler using the code "RASKSWITCH" and get $32 of Pearler Credit – Whatever comes next for your business, power it with Stripe EOFY deals to know about - ending June/July 2026 – 1 free trade per month, for 12 months, for new Pearler customers Rask resources – Pete's Buyers Agency – Alcove mortgage broking – Amy Lunardi Buyers Agency (Melbourne) – All services – Financial Planning – Invest with us – Access Show Notes – Ask a question – We love feedback! Follow us on social media – Instagram: @rask.invest – TikTok: @rask.invest DISCLAIMER: This podcast contains general financial information only. That means the information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Because of that, you should consider if the information is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on it. If you’re confused about what that means or what your needs are, you should always consult a licensed and trusted financial planner. Unfortunately, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this podcast, including any financial, taxation, and/or legal information. Remember, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Rask Group is NOT a qualified tax accountant, financial (tax) adviser, or financial adviser. Access The Rask Group's Financial Services Guide (FSG): https://www.rask.com.au/fsg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices