EIA Petroleum Status Report Released

Wednesday, July 15, 2026. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT RELEASED. Jul 15, 2026, 10:30 a.m. ET. Covering week ending ~Jul 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL INVENTORY DATA: Prior week (ending Jul 3, released Jul 8): U.S. crude oil inventories 411.4M barrels (+3.0M week-over-week; first build after 10 consecutive weeks of declines). Level ~6% below 5-year average for this time of year. REFINERY METRICS: Crude oil refinery inputs 17.0M b/d (down 173k b/d from prior week). Refinery operable capacity utilization 95.8%. Gasoline production 9.7M b/d (decreased from prior week). Distillate fuel production 5.2M b/d (decreased from prior week). IMPORTS/PRODUCTS: Crude oil imports 5.6M b/d (up 351k b/d from prior week); 4-week avg ~5.4M b/d (down 11.4% YoY). Motor gasoline inventories decreased 1.9M barrels week-over-week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased 5.0M barrels week-over-week (~12% below 5-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased 4.0M barrels week-over-week. DEMAND METRICS: Total products supplied (4-week avg) 20.6M b/d (+0.3% YoY). 4-week motor gasoline supplied 9.0M b/d (down 2.2% YoY). BROADER CONTEXT: Global/OECD inventory draws due to geopolitical factors (Middle East supply disruptions). OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows. Global inventories forecast to shift toward builds later 2026. PRICE FORECASTS: EIA forecasts Brent ~$74/bbl in 3Q26, ~$65/bbl in 2027 amid easing inventory pressure/rising supply. IEA OIL MARKET REPORT (Jul 2026): Refined product cracks/margins at 4-year highs in early Jul as crude supplies rose/prices fell. Global observed inventories rose in Jun for first time in months. NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (most recent; week ending Jul 3, released Jul 9). Storage level working gas 2,983 Bcf as of Jul 3, 2026. Weekly change net injection +61 Bcf (above consensus ~58-60 Bcf; above 5-year avg ~51-54 Bcf). Year-over-year 15 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year avg 185 Bcf (~7%) above 5-year average 2,798 Bcf. MARKET CONTEXT: Build occurred amid peak summer cooling demand/record heat. Production strong. LNG feedgas near 19 Bcf/d. PRICE IMPACT: Larger-than-expected injection viewed as bearish. Contributed to declines in natural gas futures. Aug contract dropped notably post-report. REGIONAL NOTE: Midwest saw highest net injections (~23 Bcf) in reported week. HENRY HUB FUTURES/SPOT: Henry Hub futures mid-Jul 2026 trading ~$2.89-$2.90/MMBtu (~2.898 recent data). Henry Hub spot Jun 2026 monthly avg ~$3.14/MMBtu. Broader 2026 avg projected near $3.60/MMBtu in EIA outlooks. OUTLOOK: High inventories expected to limit upward price pressure through 2026. Henry Hub spot forecast to avg just under $3.50/MMBtu for year in some EIA projections. Next release Jul 16, 2026 (Thursday, 10:30 a.m. ET). THE READ: Crude first build after 10 weeks of declines, inventories 6% below 5-year average, refinery runs down, demand flat, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas larger-than-expected injection bearish for near-term, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. WEEK 28 MIDWEEK THESIS: Crude inventory build signals easing supply stress, geopolitical premium fading. Support $75, resistance $82. Gas storage build bearish, high inventories limiting upside, target $3.50 for year. Trade the data, not the headlines.