Why 2026 Is Aviation's Most Volatile Year Since COVID

The airline industry is navigating its most unpredictable period since the pandemic, with fuel prices, geopolitical tensions, premium travel demand, and aircraft shortages reshaping the competitive landscape. Gordon Smith and Jay Shabat break down the data behind the headlines, explaining why airlines remain profitable despite rising costs and unprecedented volatility. They also explore the winners and losers across global aviation, from the Middle East's disrupted hub networks and Europe's consolidation wave to the changing competitive dynamics in the U.S. Plus, they preview what to watch as airlines report Q2 earnings and why premium cabins continue to drive the industry's strongest financial results. Follow the Hosts: Gordon Smith – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Jay Shabat – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Meghna Maharishi - ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Airline Weekly LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/airline-weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/Airline_Weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/airlineweekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/skiftnews/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ WhatsApp: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAL375LikgIXmNPYQ0L/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@SkiftNews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss an update from the airline and travel industries. 00:00 Welcome to Skift Playbooks 02:35 Why Oil Sets the Tone 06:28 Airline Profits in Context 10:39 Gulf Disruption and Recovery 12:00 Demand Trends and Rerouting 17:03 Premium Boom Everywhere 19:31 Supply Crunch and Delays 25:37 Unit Costs Beyond Fuel 26:57 Skift Aviation Forum Plug 30:00 Back to Europe Volatility 30:57 Europe Consolidation Outlook 31:36 TAP Sale and EasyJet Bids 33:43 Why IAG Outperforms 34:09 Tourism Boom and Loyalty 37:27 US Market After Spirit 40:29 Premium Gap Delta vs Spirit 44:07 US Consolidation and American Chase 48:05 Q2 Earnings Season Themes 53:04 Global Airlines Scoreboard 57:22 Wrap Up and Subscribe