Why 2026 Is Aviation's Most Volatile Year Since COVID

Why 2026 Is Aviation's Most Volatile Year Since COVID

The airline industry is navigating its most unpredictable period since the pandemic, with fuel prices, geopolitical tensions, premium travel demand, and aircraft shortages reshaping the competitive landscape. Gordon Smith and Jay Shabat break down the data behind the headlines, explaining why airlines remain profitable despite rising costs and unprecedented volatility. They also explore the winners and losers across global aviation, from the Middle East's disrupted hub networks and Europe's consolidation wave to the changing competitive dynamics in the U.S. Plus, they preview what to watch as airlines report Q2 earnings and why premium cabins continue to drive the industry's strongest financial results. Follow the Hosts: Gordon Smith – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Jay Shabat – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Meghna Maharishi - ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Airline Weekly LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/airline-weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/Airline_Weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/airlineweekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/skiftnews/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ WhatsApp: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAL375LikgIXmNPYQ0L/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@SkiftNews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss an update from the airline and travel industries. 00:00 Welcome to Skift Playbooks 02:35 Why Oil Sets the Tone 06:28 Airline Profits in Context 10:39 Gulf Disruption and Recovery 12:00 Demand Trends and Rerouting 17:03 Premium Boom Everywhere 19:31 Supply Crunch and Delays 25:37 Unit Costs Beyond Fuel 26:57 Skift Aviation Forum Plug 30:00 Back to Europe Volatility 30:57 Europe Consolidation Outlook 31:36 TAP Sale and EasyJet Bids 33:43 Why IAG Outperforms 34:09 Tourism Boom and Loyalty 37:27 US Market After Spirit 40:29 Premium Gap Delta vs Spirit 44:07 US Consolidation and American Chase 48:05 Q2 Earnings Season Themes 53:04 Global Airlines Scoreboard 57:22 Wrap Up and Subscribe

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Episoder(438)

How Many Planes Does the World Need?

How Many Planes Does the World Need?

Ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, for this special episode Gordon Smith and Meghna Maharishi are joined by Darren Hulst, Boeing's VP of Commercial Marketing. The conversation centers on the planemaker...

18 Jul 26min

Can a "New Class of BNPL" Become a Strategic Loyalty Play?

Can a "New Class of BNPL" Become a Strategic Loyalty Play?

ClarityPay recently partnered with JetBlue to introduce a new pay-later program that combines embedded financing, loyalty, and personalization to drive incremental revenue. Learn more about Clarity...

16 Jul 0s

 How Much is EasyJet Worth?

How Much is EasyJet Worth?

An approach from U.S. private equity firm Castlelake has reopened the question of what EasyJet is actually worth. Gordon and Jay run through the latest takeover chatter before setting the scene for De...

9 Jul 43min

Does SAS Really Need 40 A330neos?

Does SAS Really Need 40 A330neos?

Does SAS Really Need 40 A330neos? In part one, Gordon and Jay discuss SAS Scandinavian Airlines' new widebody order and ask whether the carrier can justify that many additional planes. In part two,...

2 Jul 37min

Is Las Vegas Out of Luck?

Is Las Vegas Out of Luck?

Las Vegas air traffic is down 6%. Gordon and Jay work through what's behind it, then turn to a U.S. market headed firmly the other way. Follow the Hosts:  Gordon Smith – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lin...

25 Jun 37min

What's the Most Profitable Airline in the World?

What's the Most Profitable Airline in the World?

The latest Airline Weekly global earnings scoreboard is in and the airline on top may not be the one you'd expect. Jay joins Gordon and Meghna to sort the winners from the losers. Before that, we re...

18 Jun 35min

The IATA AGM Debrief

The IATA AGM Debrief

Gordon joins Jay from Rio as the IATA AGM wraps. The two then turn to Brazil itself: one of the world's largest aviation markets, and one of its most consolidated — a combination that shapes everythin...

11 Jun 40min

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