What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)

The cousins reconvene with the BCA brain trust - Juan Correa, Robert Tipper, and Jeremie Peloso - for the World Cup post-mortem. The model called all four semifinalists but missed champion Spain, so the crew litigates whether the winner's curse is dead, whether the GOAT variable was a methodological capitulation, and what Cape Verde, Norway, and Egypt say about the value of a center of gravity. Also on the docket: Trump's Balogun red-card intervention, the treatment of Iran's squad, a Paraguayan senator's meltdown, and why immigration keeps winning on the pitch.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Updates/Intro

(00:39) - World Cup Recap Setup

(02:02) - Guests And Agenda

(05:34) - How The Model Works

(11:21) - Winners Curse Debate

(15:39) - Messi GOAT Argument

(21:10) - Spain And Substitutions

(26:16) - Model Tweaks Next Time

(30:57) - World Cup Negatives

(39:34) - VAR And Tournament Fatigue

(43:25) - Substitution Rules Debate

(47:25) - Stadium Atmosphere Problems

(49:53) - Anthems Halftime Politics

(54:24) - What We Loved Most

(57:19) - America Production Spectacle

(01:01:12) - Drama Violence Ticket Culture

(01:09:34) - Soccer Narratives Magic

(01:12:23) - Geopolitics On The Pitch

(01:17:49) - Immigration Nation State

(01:21:31) - Wrap Up And Next Tournaments

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Referenced in the Show:

2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro