Technicals: Week 30

Tuesday, July 28, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $79.15 (down ~4.2% intraday; day's range ~$77.81-$82.42). Overall bias Strong Sell; bearish signals. Recent action sharp decline from prior closes near $82; tests of lower supports. TECHNICAL INDICATORS (JUL 28): RSI(14) 40.129 (Sell); Bloomberg WTI 36.04 (Sell). MACD(12,26) -0.57 (Sell); Bloomberg -2.584 (Sell). CCI(14) -172.6 (Sell; deeply negative). Williams %R -73.3 (Sell). Stochastic RSI oversold. Overall Summary Strong Sell (8 Sell, 1 Buy, 1 Neutral from indicators). Moving Averages all 12 MAs (MA5 to MA200, simple and exponential) signal Sell; price below key levels like MA50 (~$81.34-$81.44). KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $80.85 (micro-support Elliott Wave context; potential for further tests lower), $78.03 (S1 Classic Pivot), $77.40 (S2 Classic Pivot), EMA50 ~$81-$84 range (recent sessions). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $79.07 (R1 Classic Pivot), $82-$89 (mid-July trading range). ADDITIONAL CONTEXT: Oversold conditions and potential EMA support could lead to consolidation or relief bounces; bounce attempts amid pauses in strikes/news flow; defensive positioning near $82. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading near $2.66-$2.74/MMBtu (down ~3.7-3.9% intraday; 3-month low). CME NGU26 contract 2.739 (down 0.049 or -1.76%). Monthly decline exceeded 16%. Recent closes earlier in week ~$2.88-$2.92. KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $2.75-$2.77 (recently tested/breached), $2.50-$2.21 (lower historical zones), $2.66-$2.74 (current trading range 3-month low). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $3.00 (psychological/technical level), $3.40+ (higher resistance). MARKET DRIVERS: Strong U.S. Lower 48 production (~110.6 bcfd); inventories ~6%+ above five-year average; LNG feedgas flows softening due to maintenance; downside pressure from oversupply. TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Rangebound or pressured lower short-term; prices remain under pressure from fundamentals. EIA WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT (WEEK ENDING JUL 17, 2026; RELEASED JUL 23): Total Lower 48 working gas 3,056 Bcf. Net change +32 Bcf injection (from 3,024 Bcf prior week). Year-over-year comparison 16 Bcf (-0.5%) below same week 2025 (3,072 Bcf). Five-year average comparison 183 Bcf (+6.4%) above 2021-2025 average of 2,873 Bcf. REGIONAL BREAKDOWN: East +17 Bcf to 631 Bcf (0.3% below year-ago; +2.4% vs. 5-year avg.). Midwest +17 Bcf to 766 Bcf (+3.0% vs. year-ago; +5.9% vs. 5-year avg.). South Central +2 Bcf to 1,105 Bcf (-4.7% vs. year-ago; +3.4% vs. 5-year avg.); salt caverns -7 Bcf, nonsalt +9 Bcf. Pacific -5 Bcf to 314 Bcf (+5.7% vs. year-ago; +18.9% vs. 5-year avg.). Mountain unchanged at 240 Bcf (+0.8% vs. year-ago; +19.4% vs. 5-year avg.). MARKET CONTEXT: +32 Bcf injection slightly below some consensus estimates (~34 Bcf) but within broader 29-37 Bcf range. Overall total storage remains within five-year historical range. THE READ: Crude WTI near $79.15, Strong Sell, RSI 40.129, MACD -0.57, all moving averages Sell, support $80.85/$78.03/$77.40, resistance $79.07/$82-$89, oversold conditions, potential for consolidation or relief bounces. Gas Henry Hub near $2.66-$2.74, down 3.7-3.9% intraday, 3-month low, support $2.75-$2.77/$2.50-$2.21, resistance $3.00/$3.40+, strong production, inventories elevated, LNG maintenance softening feedgas flows, downside pressure. Storage 3,056 Bcf, +32 Bcf injection, -0.5% year-ago, +6.4% five-year average, East +17 Bcf, Midwest +17 Bcf, South Central +2 Bcf, Pacific -5 Bcf, Mountain unchanged, total storage within five-year range. WEEK 30 TECHNICALS THESIS: Crude Strong Sell, RSI 40, MACD negative, all MAs Sell, support $80.85/$78.03, resistance $79.07, oversold, consolidation or relief bounce potential. Gas near 3-month low, support $2.75-$2.77, resistance $3.00, strong production, elevated inventories, LNG maintenance, downside pressure. Storage elevated, +32 Bcf injection, -0.5% year-ago, +6.4% five-year average, East and Midwest strong builds, Pacific drawdown. Trade the charts, respect the levels.