Former Traders Reveal How Grain Merchants Really Think

Most farmers spend countless hours trying to grow another five bushels per acre.

Mike Rolfsen and Jeff Kazin believe there may be an even bigger opportunity waiting after harvest.

The Agris Academy co-founders return to Farm4Profit to explain why merchandising—not market prediction—is where many producers leave money on the table. Drawing on decades of experience trading commodities and managing physical grain businesses at Cargill, they explain how successful grain companies approach risk, logistics, negotiations, and marketing far differently than most farms.

One of the biggest themes throughout the conversation is that grain marketing isn't about predicting prices—it's about managing risk.

Mike and Jeff explain why commercial grain companies hedge rather than speculate, and why farmers should think more like professional risk managers than market forecasters. Instead of trying to outguess the futures market, producers should focus on the controllable parts of merchandising that consistently add value year after year.

The discussion also explores what life inside one of the world's largest grain companies actually looks like. While many people imagine traders constantly buying and selling futures contracts, Mike and Jeff explain that most of their time was spent optimizing logistics, transportation, physical grain movement, basis opportunities, and operational details that collectively create significant value.

They then introduce Agris Academy, the education platform they founded to teach farmers the merchandising skills they believe are missing from traditional agricultural education. Unlike brokerage firms or advisory services, Agris Academy focuses entirely on helping producers understand grain marketing mechanics, negotiation strategies, basis, carry, storage economics, and risk management principles that can be applied to any farming operation.

Throughout the episode they discuss:

• Why hedging should never be confused with speculation.
• The psychology behind futures markets.
• How margin calls actually work.
• Why documenting marketing decisions improves long-term discipline.
• Why every farm's marketing plan should match its own financial situation instead of following someone else's advice.

One of the biggest takeaways is their concept of creating a "knowledge asset."

While farms continually invest in land, machinery, and buildings, Mike and Jeff argue that merchandising education creates an asset that can benefit multiple generations. Once the skills are learned, they become part of the operation's long-term competitive advantage and can be passed down just like any physical asset.

The conversation also dives into one of agriculture's biggest capital decisions: grain storage.

Mike and Jeff explain why the economics of permanent grain bins have changed dramatically, why many large farms are now using grain bags as flexible storage, and how understanding carry, basis, and storage costs often matters more than simply adding more bins. They also discuss treating on-farm storage like a commercial elevator instead of simply holding grain until later in the year.

Another important topic is cost of production.

While understanding production costs remains critical for managing the farm business, Mike and Jeff explain why the futures market doesn't care what any individual producer's breakeven happens to be. Instead, successful marketers focus on managing risk, understanding merchandising opportunities, and maximizing basis and carry opportunities available in their local markets.

The episode also covers:

• Negotiation strategies farmers can immediately apply.
• Why every marketing plan should be documented.
• Learning to think like an elevator.
• Separating farm performance from speculative trading.
• Why women often excel at grain merchandising.
• Building marketing confidence through repetition and small steps instead of large speculative bets.

To wrap things up, Mike and Jeff share several entertaining stories from their international trading careers—including stolen vegetable oil, disappearing sugar shipments, homemade liquor in Eastern Europe, and why, after working around the globe, they still believe the United States remains one of the best places in the world to farm.

If you've ever wondered how professional grain merchandisers think—or how to make more money without growing more bushels—this episode delivers practical insights you can begin applying immediately.

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