Time to Reduce Equity Risk: Why Underappreciated Macro Risks Could Derail the Bull Market | Warren Pies

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/globalmacro In this episode of "Other People's Money," host Max Wiethe welcomes back Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to unpack why macro risks are suddenly taking control of the stock market. Pies explains his tactical decision to downgrade stocks and commodities to neutral, shifting capital into cash as the market enters a historically weak seasonal window between August 15th and October 15th. The conversation dives deep into the Federal Reserve's true reaction function, the mispriced odds of a September rate hike, and the hidden political pressures driving the committee's choices. Furthermore, they discuss the critical data behind the AI build-out, including H200 GPU availability and the potential impact of major lab IPOs like Anthropic on the broader software sector. Save $500/year on Caliban AI from 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters Follow Warren Pies on X: https://x.com/WarrenPies Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:21 Why Macro Takes Over 03:19 Earnings Season Structure 05:43 Upcoming Macro Catalysts 08:24 Fed Hike Odds Mispriced 10:37 Political Pressure on Fed 15:29 Sponsor Break HFGM 17:45 Coin Flip Meeting Dynamics 19:42 Rates Curve and Term Premium 24:54 How to Position in September 26:53 Tech Breadth and AI Cracks 30:17 Lab ARR Reality Check 34:40 Tech Leadership Needed 38:17 Data Center ROI Debate 40:36 Election and Policy Risk 43:44 AI Issuance Scapegoats 47:35 Energy as Diversifier 51:48 Anthropic IPO Impact 55:01 Software Versus Semis 58:28 Pair Trades and Correlations 01:01:19 Fade Macro Risk Playbook 01:02:55 Conclusion