Trump’s Envoys Are Negotiating With Putin All Wrong—Here’s Why

I examine why Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s win-win framing for peace talks may misread the strategic problem posed by Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. In a press exchange, they were asked whether the United States would increase pressure as Russia escalates its war, intensifies hybrid pressure on NATO, and deepens ties with Iran and North Korea. Their response emphasized mutual benefit and the business logic of creating value for both sides.

I argue that war termination requires a different framework: changing an adversary’s expected calculation. Putin does not need to believe war benefits everyone; he only needs to believe continued fighting serves his objectives better than the settlement available. I contrast the Abraham Accords with an existential territorial conflict, explain the role of Ukrainian resistance and Western support in reducing Russia’s perceived chance of success, and consider how refinery strikes, war-economy costs, and monetary pressure could alter Kremlin incentives.

00:00 Kushner and Witkoff’s Strategic Mistake

01:56 The Win-Win Framework

04:04 The Abraham Accords vs. an Existential War

06:01 Putin’s Expected-Value War Calculation

08:20 Why Ukraine Is a Zero-Sum Conflict

09:52 A Leverage-Based Diplomacy Framework

12:08 Refinery Strikes and Russian Monetary Pressure

14:36 What Could Change Putin’s Incentives

#Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Kushner #Witkoff #Deterrence

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