TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

Richard Brennan joins us in today’s episode, to discuss all things Trend Following and we take lots of questions from listeners regarding methods for calculating initial stops and trailing stops, how to define and classify Trend Following, programming languages and how CTAs follow their system rules during drawdowns. We also talk about how big the Trend Following industry really is, back testing, risk management and allocating funds to a professional manager and how the TTU Trend Following Index compares to other indices plus much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:24 - Weekly highlights09:24 - Q1, John: Risk Management & Calculating stops13:31 - Q2, Abe: Outliers, esoteric products - do we need them?20:53 - Q3, Zach: How to keep following your rules in difficult times?31:41 - Q4, Troy: How big is the Funds Management industry?35:54 - Q5, Adam: Allocating to external TF funds, using Filters & much more01:05:47 - The Unique side of the TTU Trend Following Index01:19:03 - Industry Performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in...

4 Jun 20221h 22min

Today, Grant Williams, creator of The Grant Williams Podcast, joins us to discuss the direction that the world is heading from a global macro perspective, the role of the Federal Reserve and how it has corrupted the price of money. We also touch on how the loss of faith in institutions is a key feature of the Fourth Turning, how inflation impacts inequality and how confidence in the Federal Reserve correlates with the level of interest rates, crypto currencies and the underlying problems of the technology, Central Banking 2.0 and what happens if a Central Bank buys all the bonds in a market, real estate and the potential dangers of the housing sector, the commodity super cycle and how it causes rising interest rates, and the fate and fortune of Elon Musk plus much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Grant on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro04:19 - Grant’s background05:54 - The big global macro picture16:08 - The role of the Federal Reserve today25:16 - Inflation...the great equalizer or not36:09 - Crypto and not so stable coins44:06 - Central Banking 2.058:43 - The danger signs in Real Estate01:06:58 - The commodity super cycle01:13:41 - Elon Musk...from Showman to Charlatan01:19:04 - Thanks for listeningResources discussed in this Episode:<a...

1 Jun 20221h 20min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss manager selection and how to overcome behavioural biases, based on his paper, “Solving the Manager Selection Puzzle”, narratives and dealing with randomness in Trend Following, the end of the 60/40 portfolio and moving from public to private equity, trend following performance and quantitative investment strategies, trend following in an ever changing world and the expectation of going back to “normal”, the challenges of globalization and demographics and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:14 - Summary of the week11:47 - The Challenges of Manager selection18:22 - The Influeence of Randomness25:57 - Alan's own Vulnerability28:16 - The 5 Step Solution30:03 - When the honest answer is what investors want to hear46:42 - The evolution of the 60/40 portfolio - Barrons article55:51 - Trend following in the Press01:02:53 - Will we ever go back to "normal"01:06:11 - The Great Demographic Twist01:09:00 - Performance UpdateResources discussed in this Episode:LINK: Solving the Manager Selection PuzzleCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

29 Mai 20221h 12min

Joseph Wang, former senior FED trader & known as the “Fed Guy”, joins us to discuss the credibility of the FOMC and what drives the neutral rate, Central Bank policies and the consequences of increased divergence, monetary policies and reducing liquidity to address the problems of inflation, de-globalization and how labour is no longer connected to corporate wellness, how the FED and other Central Banks have focused on the wrong things for the last few decades, exorbitant privilege and whether the FED is starting to lose control, safe assets and ways to preserve capital, cryptocurrencies, strength of the Dollar and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Joseph on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:13 - Joseph’s background06:34 - Shocking FED Announcement10:52 - Central Bank policies14:11 - Monetary policies and liquidity30:40 - Fed paper suggesting they don't know where Inflation comes from40:03 - The wider consequences45:45 - FED losing control?53:55 - Safe assets and crypto01:05:01 - What keeps Joseph up at night?01:09:52 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that...

25 Mai 20221h 11min

Trend Following legend Jerry Parker joins me today, where we answer questions regarding the effectiveness and risks of Richard Dennis’ “Pyramiding” methodology, how single stocks have performed differently than the indices recently, how to most optimally apply breakout systems, how to react to a drastic fall in a market like we saw in LUNA and the difference between performance of short and long trades in non-volatility targeted systems, how to avoid harmful research pursuits and popular ideas that just don’t work, different ways that ownership of a CTA passes on to a new owner, designing systems that gives you a high degree of consistency and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro06:32 - What has caught Jerry’s attention?13:34 - Q1, Sascha: The Richard Dennis “Pyramiding” methodology18:35 - Q2, Jeff: Jerry’s current positioning in single stocks23:10 - Q3, Louis: Parameter selection for different breakout systems32:16 - Q4, Adam & Scott: How to deal with a drastic fall in a market like LUNA41:49 - Q5, Carl: What doesn’t work in Trend Following?48:34 - Q6, Brian: How to pass on ownership of a CTA Business53:34 - Designing consistent Trend Following systems01:09:17 - Trend, trends and no diversification01:22:36 - Performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're...

22 Mai 20221h 25min

Pippa Malmgren, former White House Adviser, technology entrepreneur and economist, joins us in today’s episode to discuss warfare in space and the space race between the super powers and the push to declassify UFO related information, how Pippa stays optimistic in a world of conflict and how the instability threatens Western democracy. We also discuss what we now know about COVID & the Vaccines and how this relates to the FED, how money printing has created a situation of both artificial calm and social unrest, whether China plans to invade Taiwan and what China has learned from the invasion of Ukraine, how the demographics of China and Russia can inhibit their power of action, how the lack of nuance contaminates the public debate and divides the population, the future of democracy and decline of autocracy, innovation and the jobs of tomorrow and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Pippa on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro05:26 - Out-sourcing & Off balance sheet government activities08:05 - Space warfare15:00 - Optimism in an unstable world20:00 - The Future of Western democracy25:10 - Money printing and its consequences27:55 - The Baltics and separating Germany from the Alliance33:52 - The prospects of China invading Taiwan46:40 - What we now know about COVID & the Risk of the FED making a

18 Mai 20221h 20min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us in today’s episode to discuss inflation and how it threatens the economy, the power and paranoia of Trend Following and how you make the most money as a Trend Follower, what history tells us about common risks and diversification, portfolio construction and whether having more markets gives you better returns, the timing of Trend Following and why you need to have it as a core allocation, how to build the optimal portfolio and why bonds currently may not warrent an allocation, Sci-Fi vs. Fin-Fi and how the FED being behind the curve affects Trend Following, why bond vigilantes are back and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro04:15 - Inflation09:09 - Trend Following update13:00 - Trends trends trends28:49 - Portfolio construction42:50 - Timing of Trend Following49:12 - The Optimal Portfolio55:12 - Sci-Fi vs. Fin-Fi01:04:16 - China and future growth01:06:07 - Overview of performanceCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a...

15 Mai 20221h 10min

Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins us in today’s episode to discuss ESG policies, the emerging energy crisis, and the new battle between the Climate-Green and the Nature-Green. We also dive into how the energy sector has evolved over time and the dark sides of renewable energy, why Moore’s Law does not apply to wind and solar energy, how cheap energy leads to distortion and malinvestment of energy, how the argument of human extinction skews the energy debate, nuclear energy and how it might be a solution to the climate crisis, how de-globalization has made the energy sector more vulnerable and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro05:12 - Adam’s background & the history of Energy13:58 - The Dark side of Renewable energy29:11 - Moore’s Law36:54 - Malinvestment and creative destruction44:33 - The renewable energy debate52:34 - Nuclear energy01:04:54 - De-globalization and its consequences01:09:42 - Link between energy prices and GDP01:13:00 - Rounding offResources discussed in this Episode:Link: History of Energy G&R VideoCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

11 Mai 20221h 16min