SI28: Investing based on the "Evidence" and what are the Trend Commandments?

SI28: Investing based on the "Evidence" and what are the Trend Commandments?

On today’s show, we give our thoughts on ‘Evidence-Based Investing’, David Harding’s latest comments on Trend Following, how much is too much ‘Open Risk’, as well as answering: what are some of the ‘Trend Commandments’? Also, we discuss whether it’s safe or not to buy after a big upside price break or sell after a big gap down, whether Volatility should be ‘targeted’ in your portfolio, and if a system can be designed handle ‘parabolic moves’ better.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:00 – Weekly review of performance

06:30 – Top tweets

34:40 – Question 1: Michael; Have any of you backtested 2009 trades onward with one size fits all position sizing?

47:15 – Question 2: Dave; What represents too much open risk as a percentage of AUM?

56:55 – Question 3: Brian; How does a Trend Following system trade a parabolic market?

01:06:15 – Question 4: George; What are the commandments of Trend Following you reference in earlier episodes?

01:10:00 – Question 5: George; Could Moritz discuss why he dislikes a simple Trend Following system on just the S&P 500 when Meb Faber’s research shows it is effective.

01:12:40 – Question 6: George; Is Jerry’s infrequent overall risk reduction built into his system?

01:15:10 – Question 7: George; Most Trend Followers use stops, why doesn’t DUNN?

01:19:10 – Benchmark performance update

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Episoder(913)

SI372: QIS Unboxed: Rules, Wrappers, and Reality ft. Nick Baltas

SI372: QIS Unboxed: Rules, Wrappers, and Reality ft. Nick Baltas

As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure...

1 Nov 202558min

OI19: The Trader Who Never Spoke...Until Now ft. David Druz

OI19: The Trader Who Never Spoke...Until Now ft. David Druz

Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now...

29 Okt 20251h 36min

SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan

SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan

Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into struc...

25 Okt 20251h 17min

UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan

UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan

Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of ...

22 Okt 20251h 7min

SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne

SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne

Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed ...

18 Okt 20251h 1min

GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld

GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld

Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable...

15 Okt 20251h 1min

SI369: Liquidity, Leverage, and the End of Safety ft. Mark Rzepczynski

SI369: Liquidity, Leverage, and the End of Safety ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Gold is ripping, but it’s not about inflation. It’s about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign ...

11 Okt 20251h 16min

GM88: Cycles of Promise and Pain: Argentina’s Unfinished Lesson ft. Nicolas Dujovne

GM88: Cycles of Promise and Pain: Argentina’s Unfinished Lesson ft. Nicolas Dujovne

Argentina’s history is one of recurring promises and painful resets. Nicolas Dujovne has lived that cycle from the inside, serving as Finance Minister during a rare attempt at fiscal repair before mar...

8 Okt 202558min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
dine-penger-pengeradet
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
e24-podden
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
finansredaksjonen
utbytte
pengepodden-2
pengesnakk
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
rss-sunn-okonomi
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
lederpodden
lederskap-nhhs-podkast-om-ledelse
rss-politisk-preik
rss-investering-gjort-enkelt
rss-markedspuls-2
rss-andelige-tanker-med-camillo