SI48: The state of the Bond market and do Institutions affect CTA performance

Today Niels continues his conversation with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. Listen in to learn when our guests use investment theory versus data, new standards for management fees, and what our guests look for in maintaining a reliable team for their investors.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:When to use investment theory versus data, and how you know when you have chosen correctlyHow the guests review their managers and analyze their resultsWhat organizations of different sizes can do to prepare for a crisisHow Steven sees the new fee structure for hedge funds, that TRS helped develop, as more reasonable than the standard 2&20How a race to the bottom for management fees can remove much of the creative energy from the alternative manager spaceWhat excites Trent about the BBB section of the investment grade bond marketWhat is new and upcoming in the hedge fund spaceThe reading that our guests never miss inside and outside of the investment space-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus HoldingsLearn more about Trent Webster...

1 Mar 201944min

Meb Faber joins the show to discuss his journey into Trend Following, where Trend Following funds have gone wrong in terms of attracting assets & growing AUM, why he started his company Cambria Investments and the difficulties that this involved, the perceived safety of US Treasuries, Mutual Funds vs ETFs, and a lot more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:30 – Weekly review of performance06:25 – Meb's backstory10:15 – Jerry question: Why don’t CTAs have more AUM?16:50 – Moritz question: When and why did you start your firm?21:00 – Moritz question: Why do you think TF and value is a great blend?28:00 – Niels question: Please talk about the perceived safety of US Treasuries (based on your research) and why you use a broader portfolio.36:20 – Niels question: What needs to happen before Betterment (and others) embrace TF?40:15 – Moritz question: Why did you set up an ETF vs a mutual fund or another vehicle?50:00 – Jerry question: What needs to happen for mutual funds to be competitive with ETFs (tax wise)?53:00 – Niels question: With ETFs do you have to disclose your trading methodology?57:00 – Jerry question: What do you think of products designed for client desires/tolerances compared to optimally designed pure TF products?01:02:30 – Jerry question: What is your opinion on active mgt = discretionary & index = systematic?01:12:30 – Niels questions: What are your favorite factors? How is your competition

24 Feb 20191h 33min

On today’s episode Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. As managers of the investment of pensions and alternative portfolios, our guests today get in depth on how they use trend following to improve their client’s capital, from interpersonal strategies in choosing a portfolio, how the funding status of a pension can affect a board’s strategy, and what guides them in making the choices they do for their holdings.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How the guests got their start in investingTrent’s philosophy for choosing his investmentsWhat Jake looks for when working with managersThe core beliefs and principles that drive each of the guest’s decisionsHow the funding level of the pension fund can change investment decisionsThe varying degrees of differentiation and how it changes with the marketsWhy our guests are firmly committed to trend following even after a few years of lower returnsWhy convincing boards to invest in a hedge fund can be so difficult-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus HoldingsLearn more about <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/trentwebster" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

20 Feb 201949min

What is the value of the 200-day Moving Average, the benefit of tried and tested strategies vs new and trendy strategies? Are drawdowns a necessary component of a robust strategy, and what is the optimum startup capital? These, and a lot more we discuss this week.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:45 – Announcement: Meb Faber will be on the show next week please send questions01:50 – Weekly review of performance06:40 – Top tweets19:00 – Question 1: Alfred; What are some filters to increase the accuracy of breakouts?25:25 – Question 2/3: Walter; Do you use volume as a signal in your systems? I’ve heard you mention more volatile systems are more robust, please explain why.41:00 – Question 4: Paul; Please discuss big data, market predictions, and the relationship to TF.47:40 – Question 5: Robert; Are Chesapeake’s single stock positions being traded via futures or cash equities?50:00 – Question 6/7/8: Chris; Why don’t more TF use single stocks? Do you put on positions the day of the signal or wait until end of week (or similar)? How do you think about stop losses in a portfolio?01:02:20 – Question 9: Matt; What needs to happen for investors to embrace TF like you all have?01:09:30 – Question 10/11: Peter-Francois; How do you handle existing positions and inflows/outflows of capital? Do you adjust stop loss levels when new investors come in to existing positions?01:14:30 – Question 12: Francois; What is your take on factor investing...

17 Feb 20191h 33min

The concept of Trend Following has been around for a long time, but it wasn’t until a few years back, that the Bible on Trend Following was written by Kathryn Kaminski and Alex Greyserman. Today, I am delighted to share some of the interesting lessons, insights, and key things that Kathryn Kaminski took away from the long road to publishing this book. Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! <a...

13 Feb 201910min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.-----Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:15 – Weekly review of performance06:10 – Top tweets28:45 – Book mention: The Systems Bible by John Gall38:25 – Question 1: Craig; Should all markets be considered equal from a TF perspective?44:00 – Question 2: Johannes; Can intraday trading be scaled into a big business?51:00 – Question 3: Manuel; What are good rules for managing position sizes to keep risk at a reasonable level as winners inherently grow with Trend Following?58:10 – Question 4/5: George; Why does TF seem to need so many return drivers for optimal diversification? How much could a TF strategy lose at once if all went wrong?01:11:15 – Question 6: Francois; Are TF interested in the sine of the speed of the trend only and not the actual speed?01:17:40 – Question 7/8: Samuel; How do you roll positions? What are your favorite resources to stay up to date on systematic investing (journals, podcasts, subscriptions, authors)?01:30:20 – Benchmark

10 Feb 20191h 32min

A while back, I had a very enjoyable time speaking to Scott Foster from Dominion Capital Management, who is not your typical Trader. He draws from a wide range of influences such as Aristotle, Magic, and Austrian Economics. I am delighted to share some of these deep insights with you in this short blog post, and I hope you enjoy these unique views and observations from Scott. Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as...

4 Feb 201911min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro03:30 – Weekly review of performance14:00 – Top tweets26:55 – Question 1: Samuel; What is a good CTA trading cost hurdle rate?34:10 Question 2: Samuel; Why do people say your biggest drawdown is always in front of you?41:10 – Question 3: Michael; How much has your parameter set changed (and related questions)?50:10 – Question 4: Francois; What do you know about Renaissance Technologies (Jim Simons)?56:30 – Miami conference review+TF thoughts01:10:00 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/"

4 Feb 20191h 13min