SI75: Morgan Housel on history being a bad guide for the future

SI75: Morgan Housel on history being a bad guide for the future

On today’s show, we discuss Morgan Housel’s recent article on history & historians generally being a bad guide for the future, the popularity of negative predictions, social media as a gauge for current market conditions, the limits of trading indexes versus diversified individual stocks, why following price may be more important than just committing to a bullish or bearish position, and Meb Faber’s recent interview with Tim Hayes, who talked about the dangers of non-price-based indicators.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:12 – Macro recap from Niels

02:59 – Weekly review of performance

05:23 – Top Tweets

34:12 – Michael; Question 1: Would avoiding all S&P500 stocks improve a Trend Following system?

36:57 – Chris; Question 2: Can you explain the term ‘Vol Targeting’?

43:40 – Adrian: Question 3: What recent client requests have you refused to accommodate, when it comes to altering either your strategies, or your business?

53:31 – Francois; Comment related to recent episodes where we discussed Trend Following on equities

57:24 – Benchmark performance update

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

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In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

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Episoder(913)

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

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SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shi...

10 Jan 1h 8min

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William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal...

7 Jan 1h 5min

SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)

SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)

In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or j...

3 Jan 1h 3min

IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano

IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano

In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than ...

31 Des 20251h 2min

SI380: Dispersion Is the Story This Year (Group Conversation Part 1)

SI380: Dispersion Is the Story This Year (Group Conversation Part 1)

Niels is joined by all 9 amazing co-hosts, to discuss a year that refused to behave. In part one of the annual "roundtable", Niels and the group map why 2025 produced such striking dispersion across t...

27 Des 20251h 12min

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