SI132: Overcoming Recency Bias for Better Decision Making ft. Mark Rzepcyznski

Did you know that a meditation practice can help you be a better investor?In this episode we discuss our common lessons that we ask all Top Traders, but we dive deep into why Nigol thinks differently about CTA issues. Growing up in war-torn Lebanon shifts the filters he uses to see the markets. We all have filters but in this episode you will learn what perspective he takes on the markets that may, or may not, support his market philosophy.Welcome back to the second half of our interview with Nigol Koulajian.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How growing up in war torn Lebanon influences the way Nigol filters market decisionsThe challenging nature of a market injected with federal liquidityNigol’s strategies for selecting position sizingDrawdown expectations of Quest PartnersHow Quest works to maintain a balance in the working environment and how busy the team staysHow Nigol manages emotional turmoil of drawdowns and how he projects this calmness upon his investorsThe few things that Nigol predicts would shake their strategyHow to listen to clients and use their advice in a way that serves them, even if you don’t implement exactly what they’re sayingWhy mathematician optimization can adversely effect the strength of your CTA strategyHow Nigol expects to know if a model is working or notThe importance of using math as little as possible despite the systematic approach to tradingA fascinating perspective on why the CTA industry AUM has shifted to EuropeThe most important question investors should be asking: “How to price tail risk.”What it takes to build a firm and become the next QuestLearn all about Nigol’s daily meditation practice which he credits as his top personal attribute to becoming a great traderThe most challenging thing about being a CTA for Nigol (A: Fishing in a very small pond)Nigol’s biggest failure which occurred in 2009-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a...

14 Aug 20141h 13min

Want to build a computer that makes money?Quest Partners LLC has a long, robust track record with their systematic trading approach.They utilize a different strategies from many of their peers and have diversified their product range to include equity programs both hedge and long only.At the core of it all is their philosophy on focusing on what investors need. They provide solutions for investors rather than a purist strategy.Leading the way is our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged, Nigol Koulajian.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:How growing up Armenian provides a filter for the way Nigol perceives the marketsHis experience at Anderson Consulting and how he ended up working with Solomon Brothers by chanceWhy Nigol spend time at Colombia Business School programming and building modelsWhat Nigol thinks of Value at RiskHow Nigol found himself as a risk arbitrage manager despite his passion for CTA strategiesHow Nigol navigated beneficial detours before finally partnering to co-found Enterprise Asset Management in 1994About the founding and growth of Quest Partners from inceptions in 2001 to +760$ million in 2014The dangers of an increased correlation between alternative strategies designed to protect against trouble in traditional investment and the traditional asset classes themselvesLearn about self reinforcing feedback loop and how managers of growing AUM are forced to allocate to factors that are doing well (but perhaps doing well by chance)About the tight, automated business infrastructure of Quest Financial PartnersAbout the shift in volatility expansion and how to measure itResources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Investors Business Daily – The finance newspaper which inspired Nigol in the early days3 Research Pieces from Quest that specifically examine factor drifts that could effect the returns of CTAsLearn about Sharpe RatioA specific trading model that trades the S&P and 30Y Bonds if it’s down 3 days in a row, with a stop-loss and profit target (Full testing and code in the link).BTOP50 – the index that seeks to replicate the overall composition of the managed futures industry with regard to trading style and overall market exposureLearn about David Harding, one of the largest alternative investment managers in the worldRead this interesting article about transcendental meditation and NigolNigol’s Foundation to promote studies on eastern religious philosophies and YogaFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, <a...

11 Aug 20141h 9min

How would it feel to identify trades no one else you know is looking for?Our guest is back and this interview is all about carry trades, mean reverting environments, merger arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, tail hedges and how to become the best trader possible. It’s quite likely there is something in this interview which will help propel you forward as a hedge fund manager or in your research of managers.Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Chief Excutive Officer of Future Value Capital, Roman Lutz.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Simple Models used by Future Value Capital to implement trend followingHow they utilize carry tradesThe third area of models: Tail HedgesLearn about how to carry potentially large value variance swaps while keeping the premium for holding them downWhere the variance exchange swaps derive from whether from OTC with counterparts or constructed using exchange listed productsLearn about Credit Support Annex (CSA)Risk management procedures at Future Value CapitalThe purpose for tactical asset allocation meetings and the decisions that are madeThe common performance drivers and if there is a dominant part of the portfolio that is responsible for the performanceHow Roman translates the complex trading strategy of Future Value Capital to investorsHow Future Value Capital implements trades and why they consider it a key strength of their programHow much AUM would be optimal running the program or if the potential is unlimitedHow to create certainty around the risk Future Value Capital holds and how they define that riskWhat Roman Lutz considers to be one of the riskiest thing that could happen in the financial systemWhat to expect in terms of returns and drawdown when investing in Future Value CapitalHow to realize when a model is no longer workingPersonal habits that contribute to Roman’s success in managing a hedge fund-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review...

7 Aug 20141h 1min

Can you implement well established hedge fund strategies in a systematic way?Future Value Capital has been researching this for years, before they started trading. They are unique because of how they simplify and automate complex Risk Premia.But we aren’t the best at explaining their systems. Roman Lutz, the Chief Financial Officer of Future Value Capital will explain it all in this interview.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About Merger Arbitrage and How investors can ProfitWhat criteria they look for in mergers, such as Market Cap, Deal Size, Liquidity etc.What currency markets Future Value Capital entersThe app. 15 strategies they use and how many sub strategies they may haveThe origin stories of where the Future Value Capital strategy derived from.Understanding the typical way to build a derivative businessWhy the average correlation of a hedge fund with equities has shifted from 0.6 to 0.9 from the 1990’s to today.How Scottish Whiskey tasting can kickstart long term business relationshipsAddressing the “Black Box” label that many systematic programs hasWhat environment Future Value Capital’s systems are best suited to operate withinThe business structure of Future Venture Capital and the alliance with Trium CapitalAbout the post Madoff and additional regulatory environment investors are operating inHow Roman Lutz developed the shared business management and split the overhead cost with other emerging fund managersThe negative side effects of sharing hedge fund management business practices with other firmsA ballpark figure for the cost of being part of the Trium Manager Alliance and get the services required to be able to operate as a regulated and well run firmHow Roman and partners develop new plans in regards to where the economy is going and how to develop plans to manage funds going forwardHow merger arbitrage and volatility arbitrage connect implied and realized volatilityHow to buy realized volatilityWhen to deploy and when not to deploy the realized volatility trades (when volatility starts to trend)Main categories from a strategy point of view – Trend Following for exampleHow Future Value Capital uses trend following-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Listen to the past episode with Marty Bergen from Dunn Capital mentioned in regards to the higher correlation between traditional alternative investment space and the traditional assets.Lars Jaeger owner of Alternative Beta Partners – Wrote extensively about the lack of alpha to people hunting it. 4x more assets are looking for alpha than alpha is available in the market.Listen to our previous guest Karsten Schroeder from Amplitude Capital on the value of systematic trading vs. discretionaryLearn more about the determining implied market volatility with VIXFollow Niels on Twitter, <a...

4 Aug 20141h 2min

Imagine if your assets under management went from $721 million to $50 million….Would you have the courage to stick with your system?Our next guest was able to weather that storm and come out even stronger. In fact, he gives credit to the fall in assets because it was an important component to improving their processes and efficiency today.We’re excite to share with you, the second part of my interview with CEO of Systematic Alpha Management, Peter Kambolin.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How many markets Peter trades and the number of different spreadsThe three points during a day in which volatility is elevatedWhat triggers an exit from a trade when profit levels haven’t been reachedHow Systematic Alpha Management makes decisions relating to sizing market positionsThe number of daily trades Systematic Alpha implementsHow much of the P/L comes from the hedge component of spread decisionsWhat kind of Risk Budgets that Systematic Alpha Management runsHow to drawdown profile has changed over the last few yearsEstimating and predicting Black Swan eventsHow Peter personally balances the challenging feelings of managing a portfolio in drawdownExploring mean reversion and how the hedge ratios change dailyOn the value of being located in the heart of New YorkThe biggest challenge for Peter in running Systematic Alpha ManagementPeter’s opinion on why success in the CTA industry has shifted from the United States of America to EuropeWhy individuality is critical in success in the CTA industryPeter Kambilin’s biggest failure and what he learned from itSome fun facts about Peter that you probably would never have guessed-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

31 Jul 20141h

Peter Kambolin is the common sense CEO behind Systematic Alpha Management, an Award Winning CTA Firm which has come through the tremendous market forces of the past 10 years. Their staying power is a testament to their success as conscious, ruled based traders.This episode is about his hero’s journey from immigrant origins in Moscow to founding a lasting, top financial service company headquartered in New York City.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:About the effect of the 2004 internet bubble and how Systematic Alpha created a “market neutral” CTA strategy in responseWhat it’s like to win global CTA awards yet still have to hunt new business due to capital flows towards large investment firmsPeter’s story of moving from Moscow to New York and how he entered the finance industryThe surprising story of how Peter was inspired to start his own firm at 21 years of ageHow Peter and Alexi work together to maximize each others strengths, and control for each-other’s weaknessesAbout the transition from long term to short term CTA strategiesWhy living in New York yet playing in Miami helps stoke Peter’s creativityThe story of the dramatic period of March-August 2011 in which they experienced a drawdown that let to a drop in AuM from 721 million to 50 million due to investor redemptions.The effects of the coordination of global economic decisions by government on volatility and it’s effect on the overall environment for Systematic Alpha Management’s CTA programs.Why Peter considers Systematic Alpha to be a stronger firm after the steep drop in AUM they experienced in 2011.Where Systematic Alpha’s value proposition is and the importance of a CTA position in diversificationHow to get out of losing trades when liquidity is a problem-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on <a...

28 Jul 20141h 5min

Welcome back to Top Traders Unplugged. On this episode Karsten and I discuss the systems and implementation that has led Amplitude to such remarkable success. As the interview comes to a close, we learn about Karsten’s philosophy of success and entrepreneurship. Despite being based outside the global financial hubs (i.e. New York, Chicago, London) Amplitude has experienced world class results. He provides a deep philosophy on achieving success in the CTA industry.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Allocation of capital from a stop-loss point of view when doing short term tradingAmplitude Capital’s systems for trade implementationWhy high frequency trading is a very different strategy from that of Amplitude Capital’sRisk management strategies and the framework for embedding these principles into the Amplitude Capital operationsExploring the meaning of market correlation in short term CTA strategiesKarsten Schroeder’s philosophy on drawdownsHow managers can do a better job of explaining drawdownsThe role of teamwork and processes in the research cycleThe internal processes for validating implementation of strategies at Amplitude CaptialKarsten Schroeder’s explanation for why Amplitude has experienced such successDo financial leaders need to live in financial hubs? How living outside of the financial hubs has impacted Amplitude CapitalThe difference between European CTA managers and US counterparts. Why has the market dominance shifted?The philosophy of failure that empowers Karsten Schroeder’s entrepreneurial journeyWhat continues to inspire Karsten to keep running the businessThe question investors are not asking that they should be:-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener...

24 Jul 201444min

Through courage and vision, Karsten Schroeder co-founded Amplitude Capital as a pioneer in the CTA industry.Why pioneers? Because they focused on short term trading.In this episode of Top Traders Unplugged, Karsten and I discuss Amplitude Capital’s scientific approach to Amplitude Dynamic and Amplitude Klassik. These are the two short-term rule based trading programs that Karsten and his team run to invest billions of dollars on behalf on a small group of institutional investors.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The founding story of Amplitude CapitalAbout the motivation source for choosing short term tradingThe scientific processes guiding Amplitude’s perception of the marketsHow Amplitude manages their in-house and outsourced business processesWhere the point of optimal capital under management is for Amplitude CapitalA bird’s eye view of their historical track record and their reaction to the market shift in 2009On the effects of quantitative easing and other government interventions in market healthModel decay and how to best deal with itThe design structure of Amplitude Capital’s ProgramsMarket dynamics and where the Amplitude programs tradeDiffering philosophies: market specific models vs. models for all marketsComparing mean reversion models (counter trend models) vs. trend following models-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Karsten Schroeder on Linkedin.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever

21 Jul 201446min