SI135: WHY Trend Following is the Safest Investment Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert

SI135: WHY Trend Following is the Safest Investment Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

  • Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for risk
  • What stage of the bull market in stocks we might be in
  • The rise in commodity prices
  • Trading in the Chinese commodity markets
  • The possible risks of trading in emerging markets
  • Crypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures markets
  • Trend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfolio
  • call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:19 - Macro recap from Niels

05:22 - Weekly review of returns

12:48 - Quant trading firms being ready to pounce on a possible upcoming commodity boom, especially in China

31:05 - The departure of some CTAs away from major exchanges, and the fund Archegos blowing up costing billions for major global banks

49:25 - Arbitraging bitcoin futures

01:00:45 - Q1; Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend Following system with a mean-reversion system?

01:04:40 - Q2; John: Do you have any advice on which futures contract to trade and when to roll?

01:09:14 - Q3; Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?

01:14:45 - Performance recap

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Episoder(914)

TTU34: The Art of Risk Management ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 2of2

TTU34: The Art of Risk Management ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 2of2

In the second part of our interview with hedge fund founder Luc Van Hof, we dive into the philosophy and creation behind his trading models. We also discuss why he is a risk averse person, what hobbie...

25 Sep 20141h 22min

TTU33: Options Trading: A Dangerous Animal? ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 1of2

TTU33: Options Trading: A Dangerous Animal? ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 1of2

Our next guest worked for the European Commission before starting his own firm. In an unusual career twist, he sold his company to a larger firm only to buy it back from them a few years later and had...

22 Sep 20141h 19min

TTU32: The Most Misunderstood Stats That You Can Use ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 2of2

TTU32: The Most Misunderstood Stats That You Can Use ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 2of2

In the second part of our conversation with Marc Malek, we explore the strategies that he uses to build his models and how he explains them in simple terms. We go in depth about drawdowns and what inv...

18 Sep 20141h 5min

TTU31: Why Investors Should Not be Worried ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 1of2

TTU31: Why Investors Should Not be Worried ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 1of2

This guest had a different path that eventually led to owning a hedgefund in New York. Marc Malek got a grant from NASA to study how different armored tank positions would lead to winning results on t...

15 Sep 20141h 13min

TTU30: Don’t Tweak Your Models! ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 2of2

TTU30: Don’t Tweak Your Models! ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 2of2

Welcome back to the second part of our discussion with Aref Karim. In this episode, Aref discusses his firm’s strategies and the broader philosophies that drives what he does. He also talks about mark...

11 Sep 20141h 8min

TTU29: How the largest investor in Hedge Funds got Started ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 1of2

TTU29: How the largest investor in Hedge Funds got Started ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 1of2

How do you transition from working alongside the capital management industry to starting your own hedge fund? Our next guest grew up in Bangladesh but fled to London during the Bangladesh Liberation W...

8 Sep 20141h 9min

TTU28: How to Bridge the Gap Between Philosophy & Rules ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 2of2

TTU28: How to Bridge the Gap Between Philosophy & Rules ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 2of2

Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Scott Foster, President and Founder of Dominion Capital Management.In this episode, we learn the philosophical rules that drive his firm, and how ...

4 Sep 20141h 26min

TTU27: Magician-turned Trader: “Reality Doesn’t Matter” ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 1of2

TTU27: Magician-turned Trader: “Reality Doesn’t Matter” ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 1of2

Our next guest was a philosophy major and a magician before he ever considered trading in the stock market. In Part 1 of our talk, he describes how philosophy and psychology determine his firm’s decis...

1 Sep 20141h 22min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
dine-penger-pengeradet
e24-podden
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
pengesnakk
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
finansredaksjonen
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
pengepodden-2
utbytte
rss-sunn-okonomi
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
liberal-halvtime
lederpodden
rss-markedspuls-2
lederskap-nhhs-podkast-om-ledelse
rss-investering-gjort-enkelt