GM22: Investing through a Fourth Turning ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen & Cem Karsan
Today, Cem Karsan and I reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been handled throughout history. Additionally, we address the consequences of ultra low interest rates and high inflation and why we might see a loss of credibility in the Fed going forward, the importance of finding an edge in your investment strategy. Lastly, we discuss the strength of the dollar, how investors should position themselves in the wake of a Fourth Turning and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:54 - Looking back on previous GM guests and how they impacted our thinking09:17 - Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective21:11 - How much power and control does the Fed actually have?31:02 - Low interest rates... a bubble maker?40:03 - The inverted yield curve...a sign?49:26 - Using volatility as a guide for equity markets59:14 - What happens to the dollar?01:04:13 - What should investors be considering at this point?01:12:24 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your...
24 Aug 20221h 15min
SI206: Trend Following is a Lazy Man's Strategy ft. Mark Rzepczynski
This week, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for our weekly update on Trend Following, at the end of yet another busy week for inflation watchers. Based on an article by Cliff Asness at AQR, we discuss why you want to own managed futures and why you want to avoid getting "carried away" as a Trend Follower, the dual mandate and the difference between strategy and running a business, innovation in Trend Following and why macro trends do not always translate to price trends. We also discuss how high inflation affects Trend Following and the importance of divergence, why turning points kill the real issue beyond inflation and using the 70 percent rule to make trading decisions, the difference between trend following and momentum and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro03:22 - What happened this week?13:36 - Industry performance update16:07 - AQR latest article on managed futures27:56 - The dual mandate and volatility "targeting"37:55 - The private equity issue and innovation in Trend Following43:48 - FT Article from Goldman Sachs about inflation and divergence49:25 - How turning points impact your overall TF returns53:17 - The 70 percent rule...and why it works for Trend Followers56:03 - Hedgehogs vs. Foxes and drought in market liquidity01:02:30 - Trend following vs. Momentum...can you tell the difference01:03:55 -...
20 Aug 20221h 11min
GM21: The Inflation Regime and the Big Macro Picture ft. Darius Dale
Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Darius on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 0:00 - Intro03:15 - Who is Darius Dale?06:48 - Darius's strategic perspective10:38 - What will happen to the inflation going forward?20:28 - Looking at the next 6-12 months26:18 - What about the longer term?31:39 - The historical perspective39:33 - What Darius is telling investors right now48:22 - Dealing with external factors58:36 - Factor correlation and clustering01:02:07...
17 Aug 20221h 11min
SI205: Trend Following...What Really Matters ft. Richard Brennan
Today, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss what really matters within Trend Following, as well as an update on the reaction to the latest CPI data. We also address questions from listeners regarding how to achieve a robust portfolio by avoiding recency bias and using a slow adaptive process, how sample size is most optimally used in Trend Following and the advantages of using a simplistic approach in your trading system. Lastly, we discuss the concept of warehousing risk and how it should be taking into account as part of the risk management. We analyse an article by Morgan Housel about long tails and how it drives every system with exceptional performance, and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:36 - Review of the market action post CPI data?07:27 - Industry performance update11:35 - Q1, Gareth: Emphasising recent performance vs. over optimisation21:13 - Q2, Antonio: Why not use a smaller sample size?41:45 - What does warehousing risk mean?50:52 - Tails, you win - Analysis of Morgan Housel article56:50 - Top 3 things that matter the most in Trend Following01:05:58 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together...
14 Aug 20221h 8min
IL06: The History of Interest & the Next Devastating Crisis ft. Edward Chancellor
Edward Chancellor, Author, Journalist and unrivaled Financial Historian, joins us today to discuss the history of Interest, based on his new book, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest". We address why it is crucial to pay attention to the historical perspectives of the economy, the allocation of capital and interest and why low interest rates have a feedback effect on the economy, the zombie corporate phenomenon and the impact it has on the economy. We also discuss the longer term consequences of low interest rates and whether bubbles can be beneficial, globalization and how interest rates impacts the fragility of global supply chains, the role of Central Banks and how they affect price stabilization by preventing creative destruction. Lastly, we discuss how the Fed policy of “cleaning up afterwards” creates unintended problems, how a zero interest policy can pose a threat to capitalism and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Edward on LinkedIn & read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:19 - Introduction to Edward 04:19 - The process of writing his latest book14:15 - Are we forgetting the economic...
10 Aug 20221h 16min
SI204: Trend Following & A Cocktail of Macro Factors ft. Alan Dunne
Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss the ongoing instability in the markets and rising inflation, and why we, as investors, should keep an open mind for what is to come. We address the pros and cons of replication strategies, the performance of the past months and why we are beginning to see a shift in the markets. We review some recent articles, including an interview with Edward Chancellor, who is current with a new book, The Price of Time. Topics we cover include the impact of low interest rates, how we are in a war economy and how we are seeing a shift in the aggregate supply curve, expectations and predictions for inflation in the coming time and much more.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:02 - What happened this week?14:20 - Trend Following update of the week16:55 - Replicating vs. hiring managers22:30 - Reflecting on the past months market reversals40:36 - Why is Trend Following performing well at the moment?48:06 - Discussing Edward Chancellor’s interview53:06 - Zoltan Pozsar’s article on war and interest rates58:56 - Bridgewater article on inflation and conversation with Bilal Hafeez01:06:45 - Thanks for listeningCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know...
6 Aug 20221h 8min
AL09: FED Funds may hit 8% ft. Bilal Hafeez
Bilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with the challenges of inflation and increasing interest rates, how technology has taken over parts of the labour force and how Covid-19 has changed the way people and companies work, how demographics impacts inflation and the growth problems that China currently experiences. We also discuss how the future for asset allocation looks and how the sanctions against Russia impacts the economy around the world. Lastly, Bilal explains his process and approach to making research and recommends books that have been influential to him.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Bilal on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:03 - Introduction to Bilal Hafeez07:51 - How does the community respond to the current environment?10:43 - FED Funds & the economic outlook of the next 6-12 months23:17 - An inflation story29:39 - Demographics - is it inflationary or dis-inflationary?35:20 - What is next for asset allocation44:03 - Should we worry about the sanctions against Russia?51:58 - Lessons learned from previous
2 Aug 20221h 9min
SI203: A new way of doing Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker
Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker where we dive into some of the highlights from the challenging month of July and how the industry has handled the current high level of volatility and trend reversals, why Trend Following continues to work but how narratives can create vicious reversals in the markets. We also discuss questions from listeners regarding Jerry’s strategies for entering and exiting trades, advice for backtesting using continuous futures contracts, how to handle stop losses and including equities in your allocation strategy. Lastly, Jerry describes why he is in favour of accidental diversification and why he is always on the hunt for outliers, why adding more markets has no impact on the robustness of a system and why he prefers to be a “slow tractor”. We finish off discussing how some firms claim that they can replicate the returns of Hedge Funds and CTAs without charging much for it and Jerry reveals a profound change to how he wants to extract trends from markets...even if it means that he will more correlated to Equities.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:02 - Market overview03:52 - Major events of the month16:00 - The importance of narratives19:16 - How Jerry handles equities22:39 - Q1, Michael: How does Jerry enter a new trade after he exited his first?25:55 - Q2, Caleb: Backtesting using continuous futures contracts30:02 - Q3, Adam: How to use stop losses and equities inclusion36:09...
30 Jul 20221h 23min
