Top Traders Unplugged14 Jun 2023

GM45: A Geopolitical Mosh Pit ft. Michael Kao

As has become clear in the past couple of years, the interconnection between Macro Economics and Geo-Politics is stronger today than ever before in our lifetime. And who better to explain this mosh pit than the Ubankaoboy himself, Michael Kao who joins me and Cem Karsan for a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We cover topics like China's debt problem, Oil and the mistakes the US are making as we speak, OPEC+ as well has hear Michael, who's parents fled from China to Taiwan, describe an potentially "explosive" scenario in which China may well be united with Taiwan that he is hearing from one of his "Uncles" still living in Taiwan.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 - The big macro picture

14:09 - The debt problem in China

20:39 - The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict

24:57 - Kao's view on supply and demand

31:17 - How does Fed power affect oil?

38:41 - A complicated dynamic

41:54 - Can we actually trust anyone?

45:29 - The shadow banking system and refinancing risk

48:53 - A structural problem

51:59 - Reimagining safe assets

58:27 - Thanks for listening

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