OI10: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino
In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Episode TimeStamps: 02:30 - Introduction03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis06:34 - Can trading be taught?08:50 - The story behind the trading rules12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trading?13:44 - How did their perception of risk change over the years?22:01...
23 Okt 20241h 15min
SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski
Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes07:47 - Industry performance update09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"?24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the...
19 Okt 20241h 2min
GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave
Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?36:48 -...
16 Okt 20241h 2min
SI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan
This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida03:39 - A rough time for trend following08:39 - Industry performance update12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following32:33 - Setting limits in your trade following strategy40:47 - What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following01:06:22 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...
12 Okt 20241h 8min
IL31: What Your Cashless Future Will Look Like ft. Richard Holden
Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Richard on Twitter and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:04 - Introduction to Richard Holden06:06 - A whole year without cash08:08 - What are the benefits of cash?12:40 - The implications of a cashless society23:53 - A big hurdle26:04 - Building a better mouse trap28:08...
9 Okt 202458min
SI316: Solving the "How Much" Trend Following Question ft. Nick Baltas
Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:28 - What has caught our attention recently?07:37 - Industry performance update09:02 - Reflecting on August and September12:25 - The reversal of the short fixed income trade17:31 - The death of short-term trend following?21:32 - Finding the right trading speed24:15 - Out-performing is a long game27:47 - Its time to move direction29:53 - Can CTA's forecast risk and returns?33:45 - Evaluating models over a long time39:24 -...
5 Okt 20241h 7min
ALO26: Managing a C$600 Billion State Pension Fund ft. Amy Flikerski
Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Amy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 03:02 - Introduction to Amy Flikerski08:02 - How they think about manager selection09:28 - How do they categorize their strategies?11:40 - How they assess their investment objective13:07 - How they manage risk14:29 - How the global macro environment affects them15:41 - How they manage a billion dollar portfolio17:11...
2 Okt 20241h 3min
SI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan
In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:17 - Industry performance update05:36 - Seasonality in markets17:49 - Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?21:44 - A dangerous path for Chinese assets25:36 - A structural downtrend in inflation?35:30 - Is the market looking through the rate cuts?39:37 - Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?46:19 - A global conflict perspective50:40 - How the election might impact commodities52:06 - Migration policy and its effect on inflation53:57 - How markets might trade right after the election is over57:13 - Dangerous...
28 Sep 20241h 4min
