Iran War Spirals + Oil Shocks Keep Coming + China’s Advantage

As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and safe-haven assumptions are being tested. China, by contrast, is looking relatively resilient, buoyed by strategic energy reserves, diversified supply chains, and policy flexibility. This episode examines how the conflict is driving inflation, complicating monetary policy, and handing China a geoeconomic edge.

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Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Mentioned on the Episode:

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House

Coco Feng, “China Issues New Safety Rules for OpenClaw. Here Are the Dos and Don’ts” South China Morning Post

Hany Abdel-Latif and Adina Popescu, “Spillovers From Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi, “Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply at the Start of 2026 as Economic Concerns Increase,” Purdue University/CME Group

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

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Episoder(38)

What We Got Right (and Wrong) This Year

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” econom...

7 Okt 48min

Central Banks in a Bind + Could AI Replace the FOMC?

This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve ...

1 Okt 47min

Why Won’t Europe Do More For Ukraine? + The Rise of Pro-Russia Populism

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the escalating geopolitic...

25 Sep 50min

Nvidia Bets Big on Hugging Face + Sebastian Sashimi + AI-Powered Toothbrushes

This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle...

14 Sep 47min

Can the U.S. ‘Grow’ Its Way Out of Debt? + Taxing Wealth in the Age of AI

This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the United States can grow its ...

10 Sep 52min

The U.S. Buys Stake in a Venezuelan Oil Company + Why Efficiency Is the Real Path to Energy Security

This week, host Rebecca Patterson sits down with energy and climate expert Vijay Vaitheeswaran to discuss the U.S. government's acquisition of 35 percent equity stake in a Venezuelan oil company and h...

1 Sep 48min

Could the AI Debt Problem Create the Next Financial Crisis?

The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. But is the risk to the financial market ove...

26 Aug 1h 5min

The Hosts Pick a Global AI Winner + The Advanced Economy Deployment Problem + The Question Even the Experts Can't Answer

Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance in AI? This week, Rebecca Patterson and ...

18 Aug 44min