The Setup Before AST SpaceMobile's Next Big Rerating

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) sentiment is near all-time lows while short interest hits record highs - Anpanman breaks down what's next.

Anpanman opens with the setup: implied volatility near all-time lows, short interest at an all-time high (65-94M shares), and sentiment washed out across Reddit and X. He argues these three ingredients, combined with looming catalysts, create the conditions for a violent rerating in ASTS stock, just like the move from $2 to $39 after the AT&T and Verizon deals.

He then digs into the near-term picture for satellite production and launches, including Bluebird 11 deployment questions, batch 3 and batch 4 shipment timing, and Blue Origin's New Glenn tower stacking ahead of a possible December static fire. Anpanman also covers Golden Dome, the 800 MHz Grain spectrum decision, the US Telco JV, and why a T-Mobile and Deutsche Telekom direct-to-cell agreement could be the biggest catalyst yet.

The episode wraps with a candid warning about options and leveraged ETFs like ASTX, why sizing matters more than being right on catalysts, and a live Q&A covering beta service targets, commercial service timelines, Meta rumors, and potential long-term acquirers.

00:00 Introduction

01:38 Implied volatility near all-time lows

02:56 Short interest at an all-time high

03:51 Sentiment near all-time lows and communication concerns

06:10 Why delays are part of building something hard

07:38 The washed-out setup meets upcoming catalysts

09:02 Comparing ASTS to other space stocks

11:37 Lessons from the AT&T and Verizon rerating

12:31 Golden Dome and 800 MHz spectrum from Grain

13:06 US Telco JV and T-Mobile discussions

15:09 Bluebird 11 deployment update

17:19 Why losing a satellite isn't a big deal

19:35 More catalysts: T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, JLEO

20:07 Blue Origin New Glenn tower stacking update

21:19 Options risk and sizing lessons

27:19 Why leveraged ETFs like ASTX are dangerous

33:49 Reflecting on the current drawdown

41:18 Q&A: beta service targets and stock price outlook

48:15 Q&A: commercial service timeline and launch cadence

50:50 Q&A: Meta rumors and potential acquirers

54:16 Q&A: T-Mobile timing and radar award

🎙️ Catch all episodes on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5u6rTxenTvGw4STNbjswAk

👋 Connect with the host on X: https://x.com/spacanpanman

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📩 AST SpaceMobile Podcast Newsletter: https://ast-spacemobile-podcast.beehiiv.com/

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