Normal Curves: Sexy Science, Serious Statistics27 Jul

Hot Tubbing: Can soaking in hot water help you run faster?

Can you improve your endurance by sitting in a hot tub instead of doing another hard workout? We dig into a study that put elite runners through five weeks of what we affectionately call “endurance hot tubbing” to see whether heat alone could trigger the same cardiovascular adaptations as altitude training. Along the way, we explore crossover study designs, multiple testing, why significant physiological changes don’t necessarily translate into better athletic performance, and how an exploratory regression analysis ended up answering the wrong scientific question. We also discover that serious hot tub research involves surprisingly little relaxation, debate whether bubbles should count as an experimental condition, and learn why distance runners pay good money to sleep in tents with some of the oxygen sucked out.

Statistical topics

best subsets regression
causal inference
crossover studies
exploratory analyses
mediation / mechanisms
model specification
multiple testing
peer review
sample size

(00:15) - Introduction
(00:44) - Can Hot Tubs Replace Exercise?
(01:27) - Crazy Runners and Crazy Training
(05:44) - The Amazon Delivery System Metaphor
(12:12) - From Heat Training to Hot Tubs
(13:33) - The Study: 10 Runners in Hot Water
(22:31) - Results and the VO2 Max Question
(29:26) - Statistical Sleuthing: Best Subsets Regression
(36:50) - The Peer Review Problem
(41:39) - Rating the Claim

Methodologic Morals

“A model can be very good at answering the wrong question.”
“The label ‘peer reviewed’ does not guarantee ‘carefully reviewed’.”

References

Jenkins EJ, Killick JA, Zerilli O, et al. Long-term passive heat acclimation enhances maximal oxygen consumption via haematological and cardiac adaptation in endurance runners. J Physiol. Published online November 20, 2025. doi:10.1113/JP289874
Stembridge M, Jenkins E. Marathon training: Why hot baths might help you run faster. The Conversation. Published March 16, 2026. doi:10.64628/AB.6vknm9esh

Kristin and Regina’s online courses:

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis

Medical Statistics Certificate Program

Writing in the Sciences

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Find us on:

Kristin - LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

(00:15) - Introduction
(00:44) - Can Hot Tubs Replace Exercise?
(01:27) - Crazy Runners and Crazy Training
(05:44) - The Amazon Delivery System Metaphor
(12:12) - From Heat Training to Hot Tubs
(13:33) - The Study: 10 Runners in Hot Water
(22:31) - Results and the VO2 Max Question
(29:26) - Statistical Sleuthing: Best Subsets Regression
(36:50) - The Peer Review Problem
(41:39) - Rating the Claim

Denne episoden er hentet fra en åpen RSS-feed og er ikke publisert av Podme. Den kan derfor inneholde annonser.

Episoder(45)

Statistical Sleuthing: Can you spot a problem?

Can you spot problems in a scientific study just by reading the published paper? We put our statistical sleuthing skills to the test with a famous study on procrastination and deadlines that was retra...

5 Okt 1h 11min

Ctrl-Z Awards: Will retracting your paper ruin your career?

What happens when you discover that your published paper is wrong? Does retracting it ruin your reputation—or could owning the mistake actually make things better? In this episode, we meet the inaugur...

21 Sep 1h 15min

Statistical Power: When is it useful?

Statistical power is one of the most important ideas in statistics—and one of the most misunderstood. In this episode, we explain what statistical power really means, why researchers need to think abo...

7 Sep 55min

Cannabis and Brain Aging: Can weed keep your brain young?

Can weed protect your brain as you get older? We unpack a study linking lifetime cannabis use to larger brain volumes and better cognitive test scores in older adults—and investigate how those finding...

24 Aug 48min

Double Duty: Can the meningitis vaccine also protect against gonorrhea?

Can the meningitis vaccine do double duty against gonorrhea? We examine a fascinating randomized trial inspired by years of encouraging observational studies—and what happened when those earlier resul...

10 Aug 40min

Exercise Snacks: Can just four minutes of exercise a day improve blood sugar?

Could four one-minute bursts of exercise really improve blood sugar? We try “exercise snacks” ourselves before taking a close look at the clinical trial that inspired headlines. We explain why the stu...

13 Jul 47min

Cancer Blood Tests Part 2: The clinical trial

How do you decide whether a clinical trial “worked”? In Part 2 of our Galleri series, we examine the landmark randomized trial of a blood test designed to detect more than 50 cancers. We explore why d...

29 Jun 57min