Tet Offensive 1968: A Capped Enemy Count, Weyand's Hunch and Battle of Hue

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In late 1967 the Johnson administration, facing rising casualties, draft calls and a war tax, ran a publicity push called the success offensive, with General Westmoreland declaring that a crossover point had been reached. In Hanoi, Le Duan's militant faction sidelined moderates such as Vo Nguyen Giap, arresting hundreds in the Revisionist Anti-Party Affair, and pressed the General Offensive and Uprising, betting that attacks on the cities would spark a revolt in the South. Weapons were smuggled into Saigon under flower carts and in mock funeral coffins while Tet travel masked the buildup. The CIA estimated communist forces at over 430,000, but MACV capped the figure at about 300,000 and dismissed captured plans as propaganda.

Border battles at Dak To, Loc Ninh and Khe Sanh drew American forces away from the cities, though Lieutenant General Frederick Weyand, noticing the enemy had gone quiet near Saigon, moved 15 battalions back toward the capital. On January 31, 1968, more than 80,000 troops struck over 100 cities, towns and bases, and sappers fought on the U.S. Embassy grounds. In Hue, Marines and South Vietnamese troops fought house to house for a month to retake the Citadel while occupying cadres executed thousands from blacklists. The uprising never came and the communists lost an estimated 45,000 to 50,000 troops, but the credibility gap at home led the president to halt part of the bombing, call for talks and announce he would not seek another term.

• A calendar discrepancy between North and South Vietnam led some units to attack a day early, on January 30.
• Half of the South Vietnamese army was on holiday leave, and U.S. intelligence officers in Saigon held a pool party on January 30.
• Commanders at first restricted artillery and air strikes in Hue to protect its historic buildings.
• The Viet Cong were nearly destroyed as a fighting force, and North Vietnamese regulars took over most of the fighting.
• After Tet the military asked for 200,000 more troops, a request that met heavy resistance in Washington.