Will the Reserve Bank Hit a 4% OCR? - Kelly Eckhold

The global economy, interest rates, and government policy continue to shape the New Zealand property market. In this episode of Home Run, we sit down with Kelly Eckhold, Chief Economist at Westpac, to explore what lies ahead for New Zealand homeowners, buyers, and investors over the coming years. From interest rate expectations, inflation pressures, and regional performance splits to AI data center energy demands, construction trends, and election-year policy uncertainties, we take a deep dive into the forces driving the economy and housing market.In this episode:• Why interest rates shifted earlier than expected and where they are heading• The impact of persistent global and domestic core inflation• Regional housing market divergence: Why provincial centers are outperforming urban centers• Modest house price growth expectations and the key downside risks• Political policy differences and potential housing tax impacts in an election year• How global energy market volatility and domestic supply affect inflation forecasts• The surge of AI data centers in NZ and their massive electricity demand• Future power price expectations and renewable energy investment needs• Why global interest rate cycles impact NZ mortgage rates independently of the OCR• Construction recovery, falling house-price-to-income ratios, and net migration trends⏱️ TIMESTAMPS00:00 – Introduction: Economic Review & 2026 Predictions01:05 – The Ongoing Middle East Oil Shock & Global Economy Resilience03:10 – The Global AI Investment Boom05:25 – NZ Consumer Pressure & Interest Rate Hikes07:40 – Global Central Bank Tightening & Mortgage Rates10:05 – Persistent Core Inflation Pressures in NZ12:30 – How Higher Interest Rates Impact Asset Prices & Debt15:00 – Risks for Homeowners & Waiting to Sell17:15 – The Divide: Major Urban Centers vs. Provincial NZ19:40 – Commodity Exports, Exchange Rates & Regional Strengths22:00 – House Price Growth Forecasts for the Next 12–36 Months24:15 – Income Growth, Unemployment Trends & Property Support26:30 – Election Year Policies: Capital Gains Tax, Land Tax & Fiscal Plans28:45 – Political Coalitions & Uncertainty for Real Estate31:10 – Energy Prices & Persistency in Inflation Scenarios33:20 – NZ’s Energy Mix, Renewable Transition & AI Data Center Demand35:45 – Who Should Finance Base Load Power Infrastructure?38:10 – Political Perspectives on Data Centers & Electricity Prices40:20 – OCR Outlook & Global Interest Rate Pressures42:00 – Construction Upturn, Housing Affordability & Migration ForecastsIs the economic landscape shifting in favor of property buyers or sellers? Watch the full episode and join the conversation.Stay connected with Homerun Podcast 👇Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@HomerunpodcastnzSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2Ik9md6okR9DaNIPwS7gJdApple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/homerun-x-realestate-co-nz/id1815415116Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/homerunpodcastnzTiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@homerunnzLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/homerunnz/