Top Traders Unplugged30 Aug 2023

GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao

Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?

06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?

11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?

16:44 - The outlook for inflation

19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?

26:07 - Rates going back to zero?

28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth

31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production

32:57 - China - a deflationary force

38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?

39:29 - Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?

42:07 - Have yields reached their peak?

42:54 - The situation in Europe

45:20 - Back to the 2010s?

46:36 - A global increase in spending?

47:37 - Concerns from a global risk perspective

51:00 - The Japanese economy

52:35 - The outlook for emerging markets

54:45 - Advice for other traders

55:59 - Thanks for listening

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