SI260: The Voldemort of the Asset Management Business ft. Andrew Beer

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffsHow a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers'The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following systemDiversification versus 'Di-worse-ification'Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classesThoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positionsRich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared'-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes02:31 – Macro recap from Niels11:17 – Weekly review of performance17:10 – Q1; Adam: At what point does diversification become dilution?22:32 – Q2; Mathew: Have there ever been any years where currencies were your top performers?32:09 – What the term ‘outlier’ really means from a...

21 Aug 20211h 5min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware ofHow macro data can contribute to a profitable trading systemThe true definitions of liquidityFutures markets as the most liquid in the worldWhy a rules-based approach to the markets is so importantThe 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreementTrend Following with markets that are ESG-friendly-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:24 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes02:57 – Macro recap from Niels04:37 – Weekly review of performance09:16 – 'The black hole of Jackson...

14 Aug 20211h 11min

Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futuresThoughts on autocorrelationThe benefits of trading a wide range of marketsHow over-optimisation can result in underperformanceWhy ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as environmentalWhy your rules are more important than any one positionHow decreasing position size can increase a system's profits-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro04:11 - Macro recap from Niels04:44 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes05:25 - Discussion on Ethereum08:34 - Weekly review of...

7 Aug 20211h 15min

Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How effective Backtests can beApply Trend Following models to synthetic marketsEthereum futuresWhy 'dirty fuel' markets should still be tradedCombining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategyDistinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust systemHow to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:44 - Macro recap from Niels04:41 - Weekly review of returns10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan’s findings that a Trend Follower’s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model?29:06 - Q2; Daniel: Can inflation market effects be incorporated into Trend Following strategies?36:16 - Q3; Stasius: What techniques do...

31 Jul 20211h 1min

This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategyHow to profit across multiple timeframesHow momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methodsAverage win rate versus average loss rateWhy inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investorsTrailing stops and risk managementHow many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:31 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes02:18 – Macro recap from Niels04:23 – Weekly review of performance10:24 – Q1; Kushro: Is there a way for the novice rules-based investor to reliably backtest their rules?12:40 – Q2 & Q3; Danny: Can you give an example of how to trade multiple timeframes? How do I...

24 Jul 20211h 6min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How behavioural finance leaves investors under-allocated to Trend Following strategiesHow to perceive momentum dataWhy the steady flow of market news often has little value for Trend FollowersEmbracing simplicityThe need to avoid too many filters in your systemHow much should be risked per trade-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes03:02 – Macro recap from Niels04:48 – Weekly review of performance11:59 – Q1; James: What are your views on momentum indicators diverging against price action?24:56 – Q2; Frank: What is your view on the relationship between the stop and the look-back period?28:52...

18 Jul 20211h 8min

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:28 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes02:02 - Macro recap from Niels12:07 - Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy?31:37 - Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days? What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake? How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’?40:01 - Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer?47:27 - Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns 50:48 - Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance58:11 - How newer money managers can differentiate themselves...

11 Jul 20211h 8min

Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possibleOptimal exits from hugely profitable tradesHow to engage in related to your investment approachOver complicating a trading strategyAcceptable margin amountsSpread-trading using a Trend Following strategy-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:28 - Macro recap from Niels03:53 - Weekly review of returns11:01 - The commodities reflation trade and Moritz’s trade in Lumber14:32 - Q1 & Q2; Andreas: How do you justify your fee structure? What long-term returns should we expect from a short-term CTA? At what point does enhancing a strategy become over-complicating it?29:20 - Q3; Mark: What are some of the best look back periods?34:13 - Q4; Frank: Do CTAs place any importance on the Commitment of Traders report?41:14 - Q5; John: What is a normal...

4 Jul 20211h 4min