Top Traders Unplugged22 Nov 2023

GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins

07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?

12:27 - Where are we now?

17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?

23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?

26:37 - A sticky inflation

28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?

32:52 - A concern for real-estate?

38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?

46:21 - Are central bankers bluffing?

51:15 - Will there be limits to physical policy?

59:11 - The outlook for asset allocation and currencies

01:03:42 - Thanks for listening

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