SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer

SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:38 - Industry performance update

06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?

11:49 - What causes the rising Cocoa prices?

13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following

16:58 - Industry performance update continued

18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?

22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?

30:51 - A period of normalcy

34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative

42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?

46:22 - Stacking returns -...

Episoder(861)

SI10: How to set your Stop-Loss and Size your Positions?

SI10: How to set your Stop-Loss and Size your Positions?

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:45 – Weekly review of performance09:15 – Top tweets14:20 – Paper from Jim O’Shaughnessy from 198729:50 – Question 1: Andrew; How do you get the TF message across to advisors?39:40 – Question 2: George; Please discuss position sizing.39:40 – Question 3: George; Please discuss how far stops should be from entry (5%, etc.)39:40 – Question 4: George; Do you think the future is a hybrid of TF and discretionary?52:10 – Question 5; Francois; Long question about correlations57:15 – Benchmark performance update58:00 – Additional discussions of systems tradingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend...

17 Nov 20181h 1min

TTU108: Big Opportunities in Exotic Markets? ft. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital – 1of2

TTU108: Big Opportunities in Exotic Markets? ft. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital – 1of2

Today I’m joined by my co-host Moritz Seibert to speak with Doug Greenig, the Founder, CEO, and CIO at Florin Court Capital. Doug’s early experiences in economics at Princeton and UC Berkeley helped kick off his career in finance, and his work at BARRA in Berkeley started his eventual dive into the CTA space. Trading in exotic markets has helped Doug and his firm capitalize on unique opportunities and fully utilize the systematic trading model. Listen in to today’s episode to learn how Doug got started in systematic trading and exotic markets, how he built his team at Florin Court, and how he has utilized exotic markets to their fullest potential.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Doug got started in financeWhy Doug got into the CTA spaceHow systematic trading intrigued Doug more than discretionary tradingThe inspiration behind the name Florin Court CapitalWho influenced Doug in his financial careerWhat Doug learned from working with Fischer Black (co-inventor of the Black-Scholes model)How Doug found such an experienced team in the early days of Florin Court CapitalThe exotic markets that Doug is tradingWhat makes these exotic markets easier, or better to tradeWhere to find the right balance of exotic versus traditional marketsWhat gives an asset more or less momentum, and why crypto is so special in this regardHow Doug selects his markets, and his long-term strategy for maintaining that collectionWhy Florin Court Capital has stayed out of trading spot cryptoHow to adapt the different markets to the standard models-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Doug Greenig on <a...

15 Nov 201839min

SI09: What really makes a Trend Follower a Trend Follower?

SI09: What really makes a Trend Follower a Trend Follower?

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:50 – Weekly review of performance08:50 – Top tweets24:30 – Question 1: Brian; What makes a trend follower a trend follower (are there variations on TF)?32:20 – Question 2: Seth; What is the best way to achieve diversification in the fixed income/rates sector?38:45 – Discussion papers: Winton, Tim Price49:30 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the...

12 Nov 201852min

BO08: How to really Define Risk

BO08: How to really Define Risk

During a conversation I had with expert Bill Dreiss, we discussed many topics, all with great value. One part in particular I found really interesting, and which I would like to share with you, was when I asked Bill how he defines risk. If you would like to l know what Bill said then keep listening!Listen to the full episode here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have...

7 Nov 20188min

SI08: How to tell if you system has stopped working?

SI08: How to tell if you system has stopped working?

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:50 – Weekly recap of performance20:15 – Top tweets38:50 – Question 1: Kyle; What’s the preferred method of dynamically adjusting/rebalancing a portfolio?49:30 – Question 2: Dave; Please describe ways to reduce risk in drawdowns52:50 – Question 3: Dimitry; What time frames do you consider too long to be effective (ex. quarterly)57:45- Question 4: Dimitry; At what point in drawdown (%) do you say something is wrong with the system?01:01:30 – Question 5: Robert; Do you typically trade the front month contract or use proprietary methods to select contracts?01:04:30 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a...

5 Nov 20181h 7min

BO07: Cold Turtle Takeaways

BO07: Cold Turtle Takeaways

It’s not often you get to sit down with a Turtle, let alone the father of the Turtle Experiment, and when I do I find it fascinating learning about the different experiences and outcomes that emerged from what really can be boiled down to 2 to 3 weeks of training in how to use trading rules to make money in the markets. What was truly unique about the conversation I want to share a few key takeaways from today, is that Richard Dennis was joined by two of his Turtles, namely Jerry Parker and Brian Proctor, where they shared some of their personal impressions from their time together…things that has not really ever been discussed publicly. We even discussed their research in to “counter-trend” models…not something you would think the Turtles would spend time on…and of course just having Richard Dennis share his wisdom was huge. Listen to the full episode here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend...

31 Okt 20189min

SI07: What is; alpha, smart beta, implied vol, crisis alpha and convexity?

SI07: What is; alpha, smart beta, implied vol, crisis alpha and convexity?

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:15 – Weekly recap of performance08:30 – Discussion of recent articles21:30 – Top tweets36:10 – Question 1: Mohit; Discuss moving averages as a TF device; position sizing; correlations43:20 – Question 2; Paul; How many investors are out there who use TF but their AUM doesn’t show up in the official industry AUM #s47:10 – Question 3: John; Asked about industry jargon and definitions: alpha; smart beta, implied vol, crisis alpha, convexity51:30 – Question 4: Mohit; Is looking at correlations in the rearview mirror fallible?52:50 – Question 5: Dave; What is the average time in trade of winners in a medium-term system?57:10 – Question 6: What software do you use for backtesting/system management?01:01:40 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my...

29 Okt 20181h 4min

TTU107: The Bright Future of Trend Following ft. Jean Jacques Duhot of Arctic Blue Capital – 2of2

TTU107: The Bright Future of Trend Following ft. Jean Jacques Duhot of Arctic Blue Capital – 2of2

Moritz Seibert and I continue our conversation with Jean Jacques Duhot and further discuss his contrarian and multi-part model, how his management company has stayed lean, and how the due diligence of investors and managers has changed the trading space for the better. Listen in to learn the unique properties of Jean Jacques new equities program, what he sees in the future of trend following, and who has influenced him most.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Jean Jacques knows when to change his position in his “all-in” approachWhy Arctic Blue’s acquisition by H2O has been such a positive experienceHow H2O is helping Arctic Blue stay lean and focusedWhat is unique about Arctic Blue’s new equities programWhat Jean Jacques defines as risk in his modelWhat excites and scares Jean Jacques about about the futureThe most useful information Jean Jacques has learned about trend followingWhy Jean Jacques believes the due diligence of managers by investors is the best it’s beenWhat books Jean Jacques recommends for anybody in the trend following and investing spaceWho influenced Jean Jacques in his journey into trend following-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jean Jacques on LinkedIn.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3...

25 Okt 201830min

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