60. From Energy Transition to Energy Crunch: The “Natgaspocalypse” - oct21
Redefining Energy15 Okt 2021

60. From Energy Transition to Energy Crunch: The “Natgaspocalypse” - oct21

For the past decade, Natural Gas has been promoted as the “Clean, Reliable and Cheap” fuel to assist the Energy Transition. Well that cosy theory, heavily promoted by the fossil fuel companies, is collapsing in front of our eyes with the Gas crunch affecting Europe, Asia and Latin America.
As of 6 October 2021, TTF (the Dutch gas hub) front month prices briefly touched 160EUR/MWh, 8 times higher than where they were at beginning of the year, and equivalent to a staggering 56USD/mmbtu or 350USD/bbl of Oil.

In this episode, that we record almost live, Gerard and Laurent try to analyse the causes, the impacts, and the long-term consequences of what we dub “The Natgaspocalypse”. We might as well have called the episode “From Russia with love” as we are discussing, amongst other factors, the role of Russia in the current energy crunch.

But a lot of other long-term and short-term factors have come together to create the perfect storm. So, if supply is being analysed, there is also a lot to discuss about demand.

How those crazy energy prices are fed to the final consumers is creating havoc within the Energy supply chain and triggers heavy-handed, hastily designed, government interventions. Such crises certainly distract the decision makers from their lofty “Net Zero by 2050” goals.

Even when the market ends up rebalancing, as commodities market always do, the suddenness of the shock and its magnitude will generate significant consequences that will go beyond price controls and geopolitics. Governments will need to be more hands-on, whether through a faster decarbonisation or simply doubling down on gas.

The Energy Transition will not be a smooth journey.

We thank Aquila Capital for their support
https://www.aquila-capital.de/en/

Episoder(179)

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188. US/Petrostate vs EU/Electrostate – a joint episode with Open Circuit

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187. Texas: Power Surge or Power Splurge? - Jul25

187. Texas: Power Surge or Power Splurge? - Jul25

Texas is an oddity in the western electricity world: fastest growing load, ultra-low prices, crazy development of renewables. Texas consumes now more power than France, despite having only half the po...

21 Jul 202526min

186. Power under Pressure: Fortum’s CEO on Datacenters’ growth and Russian Attacks (Eurelectric)

186. Power under Pressure: Fortum’s CEO on Datacenters’ growth and Russian Attacks (Eurelectric)

Laurent had the pleasure and privilege of sitting down with Markus Rauramo, CEO of Fortum, during the Eurelectric “Power Play” conference in Brussels this June.  Fortum, the Finnish energy company als...

14 Jul 202524min

185. Blackouts - Jul25

185. Blackouts - Jul25

What Really Happened During the Iberian Blackout This Spring? And How Should We Make Sense of the Conflicting Reports?  To shed light on the events, Gerard and Laurent are joined by global energy expe...

7 Jul 202524min

184. Market dynamics and Pricing of Battery Materials - Jun25

184. Market dynamics and Pricing of Battery Materials - Jun25

Six years ago, Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence shook the world in a now legendary testimony in front of the US Senate. Then, Simon predicted the exponential growth of batteries an...

22 Jun 202533min

183. Energy Security from the front line: Eastern Europe and Renewables - Jun25

183. Energy Security from the front line: Eastern Europe and Renewables - Jun25

Laurent remembers vividly his trip to Sofia Bulgaria in winter 2009 when the Russians had cut the gas for Bulgaria during a -15C winter. Russia was already playing hard ball because of (guess what) a ...

15 Jun 202527min

182. Broken grids and Datacenters load growth - Jun25

182. Broken grids and Datacenters load growth - Jun25

We have recently witnessed spectacular black outs: South Australia 2016, Texas Uri 2021, California 2020-21-25 and Iberia 2025. We are not even mentioning fragile grids in the Global South.  We will d...

9 Jun 202532min

181. “Hot Air” from Tony Blair - May25

181. “Hot Air” from Tony Blair - May25

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) recently released a widely publicized report titled “The Climate Paradox”, which has garnered significant positive attention from outlets such as the G...

26 Mai 202520min

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