Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House's Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie's favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Ernie's Twitter: @ernietedeschi

Ernie's Budget Lab profile

David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium* by Ernie Tedeschi

*Recent Movements in [R-star]: The Most Important Interest Rate That You have Never Heard Of* by Ernie Tedeschi

*The 2024 Economic Report of the President* by the White House Council of Economic Advisers

*The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong* by Nick Timiraos

*Summers, Blanchard Say Waller's 'Soft-Landing' Paper Has Errors* by Craig Torres

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:49) – Ernie's Experience at the CEA

(00:09:15) – The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy

(00:15:28) – Ernie's Favorite Measures of the Labor Market

(00:20:17) – The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures

(00:24:07) – The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium

(00:28:56) – Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege

(00:33:46) – Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:37:01) – Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario

(00:43:25) – Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars

(00:48:39) – Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars

(00:54:46) – Assessing the Sources of High Productivity

(00:58:22) – Outro

Episoder(543)

Laurence Bristow on What the Fed can Learn from the Reserve Bank of Australia

Laurence Bristow on What the Fed can Learn from the Reserve Bank of Australia

Laurence Bristow is a former staffer at the Reserve Bank of Australia and currently is a Vice President and Research Associate at the Bank Policy Institute. In Laurence's first appearance on the show,...

8 Des 202553min

Austin Campbell on the Rise and Regulation of Dollar Backed Stablecoins

Austin Campbell on the Rise and Regulation of Dollar Backed Stablecoins

Austin Campbell runs Zero Knowledge Group, a consulting and advising firm in the digital assets space and is an adjunct professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. In Austin's first a...

1 Des 202558min

Mike Bird on the Land Trap and How the History of Housing Impacts the Global Economy

Mike Bird on the Land Trap and How the History of Housing Impacts the Global Economy

Mike Bird is the Wall Street editor for The Economist magazine and is the author of The Land Trap: A New History of the World's Oldest Asset. Mike returns to the show to discuss the conclusion of Aben...

24 Nov 20251h 1min

Lukasz Rachel on Non-Ricardian Macroeconomic Policy and Its Implications for Inflation

Lukasz Rachel on Non-Ricardian Macroeconomic Policy and Its Implications for Inflation

Lukasz Rachel is a former Bank of England economist and currently is an assistant professor of economics at the University College of London. In Lukasz's first appearance on the show he discusses his ...

17 Nov 202551min

Tara Sinclair on Building a Synthetic FOMC Through AI

Tara Sinclair on Building a Synthetic FOMC Through AI

Tara Sinclair is a professor and chair of the economics department at George Washington University. Tara returns to the show to discuss her ambitious paper simulating an FOMC meeting before it happens...

10 Nov 202552min

Bryan Cutsinger on the What the History of Growth Driven Deflation Can Teach us about a Potential AI Boom

Bryan Cutsinger on the What the History of Growth Driven Deflation Can Teach us about a Potential AI Boom

Bryan Cutsinger is a monetary historian and an assistant professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University. Bryan returns to the show to discuss how we think about deflation, the history of grow...

3 Nov 202556min

Will Roberds and Steve Quinn on the Original Central Bank: the Bank of Amsterdam

Will Roberds and Steve Quinn on the Original Central Bank: the Bank of Amsterdam

Will Roberds is an economist emeritus of the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Steve Quinn is a professor of economics at Texas Christian University. In Will and Steve's firs...

27 Okt 202557min

Jim Clouse on the Last 4 Decades at the Most Powerful Central Bank in the World

Jim Clouse on the Last 4 Decades at the Most Powerful Central Bank in the World

Jim Clouse is a veteran of the Federal Reserve System and is currently a fellow at the Andersen Institute. In Jim's first appearance on the show, he discusses the evolution of monetary rules at the Fe...

20 Okt 20251h 1min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
e24-podden
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
pengepodden-2
finansredaksjonen
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
utbytte
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
okonomiamatorene
liberal-halvtime
pengesnakk
rss-politisk-preik
lederpodden
rss-pa-konto
rss-markedspuls-2