GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

Buckle up for a fascinating conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, as he shares insights on managing a billion USD through short-term trading. Discover why he's chosen this approach and how he's overcome its challenges. You'll also gain valuable insights on human biases surrounding the Sharpe Ratio, the impact of an inverted yield curve on longer-term trend following strategies, and why Roy "has PTSD" from investing in the stock market. Dive deep into the drivers of short-term trading and learn why thinking like a trader is key to successful research. Plus, Roy offers a cautionary note on the dangers of machine learning. Don't miss this illuminating conversation!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.Episode Timestamps:02:16 - Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management03:46 - Their investment philosophy10:00 - A period of challenges13:26 - Believing in change15:45 - Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?23:02 - Looking back in time30:42 - The role of short-term trading38:56 - What drives short-term trading?42:47 - Being smart with execution46:09 - Dealing with the downsides53:53 - Studying the markets55:49 - The dangers of machine...

10 Apr 20231h 9min

Join us for an engaging conversation with Rob Carver, where we delve into the world of systematic trend following. We explore topics like how to forecast future market volatility and the pros and cons of using a Value at Risk methodology. We also discuss the benefits and drawbacks of tail risk hedging, and whether percentage or price differences are better for estimating standard deviation. As a surprise twist, we also explore the reasons why you should NOT be a trend follower. Tune in for a fun and thought-provoking discussion with Rob.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:40 - What happened since last time? 09:42 - Industry performance update 10:38 - Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?13:28 - Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?20:49 - Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend? 25:41 - Libor Futures being replaced 30:41 - Blogpost about estimating standard deviation 38:01 - Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction43:37 - Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging56:22 - Reasons Not to trend follow 01:09:50 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics...

8 Apr 20231h 12min

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley as we discuss what we can learn from economic history in the current volatile global macro environment. We discuss the uses and misuses of history and look at what history tells us about the policy response to the current strains in the banking system. We delve into Professor Eichengreen’s work on the long term outlook for the US dollar, the exorbitant privilege that the dollar’s reserve status bestows on the US and whether the Euro and the Chinese Renminbi are becoming credible alternatives to the dollar. We also discuss if rising public sector and private sector debt levels sustainable and whether the global economy has fully emerged from the period of secular stagnation which characterised the last decade.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Barry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 03:19 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen 08:17 - A potential misuse of history 11:26 - A lesson forgotten? 14:25 - Are things starting to break? 16:49 - A lesson learned 18:44 - Should we be concerned? 22:19 - Are crises inevitable? 24:32 - Is the dollar under threat? 30:10 - The need for safe assets 36:02 - The state of the Euro 39:39 -...

5 Apr 20231h 3min

Join us for an in-depth conversation with Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court, as we explore their unique approach to managing $2 billion in assets using a systematic trend following program focused on alternative markets. Discover how they navigate the current macro environment by prioritizing skew over the traditional Sharpe ratio, their process for uncovering new markets, and their strategies for managing risk and uncertainty during times of crisis. We dive deep into their trend following implementation and why it's essential not to become a "backtest junkie." Plus, learn why they steer clear of having money inside of China, despite trading Chinese markets and how the location of their office has impacted their work. Don't miss this enlightening discussion with another industry leader in the CTA space.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Florin Court.Episode Timestamps:02:46 - Discovering Florin Court's Trend Following Approach03:54 - The Macro Perspective: Understanding the Big Picture07:13 - Why Trend Following and Alternative Markets?15:55 - Skew Over Sharpe Ratio: A Different Way of Looking at Risk18:31 - Understanding Crisis Alpha: How Trend Following Shines in Turbulent Times22:27 - Accessing Individual Markets: The Hunt for Alpha29:20 - Navigating Risks in Alternative Markets33:39 - The Role of Macro Factors in Alternative...

3 Apr 20231h 12min

Join us for an eye-opening conversation with Richard Brennan, as we explore the world of trend following and delve deep into the unusual moves in fixed income markets and its impact on trend following performance during a month of March Madness. Discover how the design of trend following strategies allow it to be “prepared” for unforeseen events without overcomplicating the investment approach, and find out why choosing the right strategy and manager is all about personal preference. Rich reveals the secrets behind "the lifting power" of trend following and shares insights on how to determine the right amount of trend following allocation. Plus, gain valuable knowledge on the protective properties of trend following, the best ways to evaluate strategies, and the risks of being a replicator versus being a manager. Don't miss out on this enlightening episode!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:03:16 - What happened this week? 08:34 - Unusual moves15:16 - Reviewing the March Madness20:44 - Industry performance update22:05 - Being prepared for unexpected events27:17 - Keeping things simple30:29 - Correlation in your portfolio34:27 - Finding the right strategy and manager38:11 - The Good, the Bad & the Ugly side of the Sharpe Ratio49:27 - Tail hedge vs trend following allocation55:19 - Who's Sharpe should we be improving?01:02:39 - The Pros...

2 Apr 20231h 15min

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Rana Foroohar, global business columnist and author of "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World". In this episode, Rana discusses the need for a localized economy to find a balance between the power of big government and large corporations. We explore how a prosperous, localized economy can be created by retethering wealth and place and talking about people and organizations that are already making it happen. From the problem with big food to the challenges of manufacturing and construction, Rana shares stories of people working on solutions and how additive manufacturing, localized production, and digital innovation can play a role in the future of our economy, and what the impact on inflation might be. Tune in to this fascinating discussion and gain new insights into the potential for a more resilient and balanced economy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Rana on Twitter & read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:49 - Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book11:42 - What will the new world bring?17:01 - The problems with Big Food21:58 - The fascinating story about Molly Jahn?28:08...

29 Mar 20231h

Get ready for an engaging conversation with Bruno Gmür, the Founder and CIO of Quantica Capital, as we explore their unique approach to systematic diversified trend following. Join us as we dive into the world of relative trend following and why volatility isn't always the right measure of risk. Bruno shares his insights on the challenges of estimating covariance matrices and expected returns during times of crisis, and how to create robust models to mitigate risk and prepare for market shocks. We'll also discuss why Quantica Capital no longer uses the term "crisis alpha" to promote their strategy and why trend following is much more complex than it may seem. Don't miss our discussion on the relationship between market liquidity and volatility as well as many more topics in this wide-ranging conversation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Learn more about Quantica Capital.Episode Timestamps:02:46 - Introduction to Quantica Capital05:04 - Their investment philosophy12:31 - What makes them unique?17:09 - Reacting to trends19:43 - Why not do it the easy way?23:33 - Looking Sharpe30:34 - When Correlations go to "1"35:12 - Dealing with shocks39:02 - The measurement methodologies43:14 - The role of correlation46:38 - Good research and potential pitfalls53:09 - Important...

27 Mar 20231h 20min

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cem Karsan as he sheds light on the current financial landscape, from the recent banking crashes to Central Bank Rate Hikes and Geo-Political developments. Discover the reasons behind the unprecedented moves in the volatility space and how they're impacting different strategies, including trend following. Cem shares his thoughts on the critical importance of positioning and why volatility strategies are currently facing tough times. We'll also delve into the potential consequences of a loss of confidence in central banks and their policies, including much higher bond yields. And don't miss our discussion on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election will impact economic policies in the months to come. Tune in to gain valuable insights from one of the sharpest minds in finance.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:03 - Reflecting on the current bank crashes 06:03 - The difficult situation for Powell 09:38 - The geopolitical perspective 12:38 - Surprises in the OpEx 18:03 - Weekly update 20:24 - The volatility winter27:05 - Vol strategies in the equity space30:38 - How volatility funds are finding it hard to make money at the moment? 36:11 - Are vol strategies on a downfall? 44:15 - A loss of confidence in Central Banks48:09 - What are the signs to look for? 50:55 - The U.S election...and how it will affect...

25 Mar 20231h 4min