GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

Hari Krishnan is joined today by David Orrell, to discuss the problems with using physics analogies on financial markets, the cause and effects of price impacts, David’s new book: ‘Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb’, the magical properties of money, how sentiment drives price although it is so unpredictable in nature, the similarities between weather forecasting and economics, the sustainability of money creation by central banks, and some thoughts on cognitive interference.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How quantum physics relates to financial marketsThe mechanics behind price impactsDavid’s new book, coming out soonThe magical characteristics of moneyThe power and unpredictability of sentimentWeather and how it relates to financial marketsCentral bank money creation and how effective it can beCognitive interferenceFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow David on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:54 - Can you give us some conclusions from the research you’ve done on weather forecasting?04:33 - Is the notion of the economic system as being something that’s mechanistic and can be controlled flawed, and if so, how?07:12 - Do you look at different economic models and aggregate the data?12:46 - Is there a way to limit the momentum effects of passive investing on the...

26 Jan 20221h 5min

Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and the differences between Trend Following and ‘Trend Trading’.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Spotting patterns among previous outliersSimplicity over complexityHow little the news really moves marketsProfessional Trend Following versus 'Trend Trading'The ability of Trend Following models to automatically reduce open risk during drawdowns-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:19 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:41 – Macro recap from Niels04:13 – Weekly review of performance11:14 – Q1; Jonathan: What are the parameters that indicate a high chance of an outlier...

23 Jan 20221h 28min

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Co-Founder & Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, to discuss how news drive price action, and some of the science behind the large price movements, how we should think about adapting to changing dynamics such as correlations, Jean-Philippe’s background in physics and journey into finance, the effectiveness of the Bloomberg terminal, using dimensional analysis for research purposes, the inelastic market hypothesis, differentiating yourself as a Trend Follower, and the connection between volatility strategies and high frequency data.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The extent to which news drives price actionHow to look at ever-changing market dynamics, such as correlationsJean-Philippe's journey into financeThe reliability of the Bloomberg terminalDimensional analysisThe inelastic market hypothesisStanding out in the Systematic Investor spaceVolatility strategies and if they have any connection to high-frequency dataFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Jean-Philippe on LinkedIn.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:38 - What area of physics did you work in, and how did you come into finance?05:04 - Can you elaborate the paper you worked on, where you where you investigated the endogeneity of large price moves?15:24 - How timely do you...

19 Jan 20221h 2min

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the different ways that Trend Following is perceived by investors, the optimum amount of positions to trade at once, rating the riskiness of various investment strategies, Trend Following on the VIX, suitable risk amounts per market, what to do with the free cash in your futures account, if Trend Followers pyramid positions, trading CFDs and dealing with transaction costs, and the best lookback period when measuring correlations.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The perception of Trend Following among various types of investorsHow many positions to trade at onceThe ‘riskiness’ of various investment strategiesCombining Trend Following and Volatility strategiesRisk-per-futures contractHow much cash to keep on the sidelines and what to do with itPyramiding positionsCFD trading and navigating commissionsMeasuring correlations effectively-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro03:24 - A huge thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 04:47 - Macro recap from Niels08:17 - Weekly review of returns11:01 - How has your new approach been working out, Rob?19:33 -...

16 Jan 20221h 26min

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Dave Dredge, to discuss how long-volatility strategies can improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the concept of ‘participate and protect’, the importance of understanding why compounding is the ultimate goal, the ‘always good weather’ portfolio, trading Bitcoin volatility, being a ‘value buyer’ of volatility, mechanisms for taking profits, and how to size portfolio allocations properly.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How to improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolioDave’s concept of ‘participate and protect’The importance of compoundingDave’s ‘always good weather’ portfolioLong-volatility Bitcoin strategiesValue investing in the volatility spaceMethods for taking profitsSizing portfolio allocationsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Dave on LinkedIn.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:01 - How did you end up in the long-volatility sector?04:55 - How options used to be considered as a redundant trading method07:53 - Do you have any idea why the Bitcoin skew is so high and flat?08:56 - What does it mean when you say you consider yourself a value-buyer of volatility?10:15 - Do you have any notion how to mix the various positions you warehouse?15:46 - How do you source good ideas, and has living in...

12 Jan 20221h 6min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss what the future could look like without central bank liquidity being pumped into the markets, macro versus quantitative trading approaches, how to avoid crowded strategies, some post analysis of a trend following research paper, whether CTAs are being gamed by other participants, analysing the various methods of price trend measurements, what may have caused a more difficult trading environment for Trend Following strategies in the 2010s, and the economic factors that lead to great periods for Trend Following.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:What markets could look like without Federal Reserve liquidity injectionsMacro versus quantitative approachesAvoiding crowded strategiesWhat it was like to trade through 2018How market participants may try to game Trend FollowersMeasuring the strength of price trendsReviewing the performance of Trend Following during the 2010sWhich economic factors could drive strong Trend Following performance-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro00:58 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes02:34 - Macro recap from Niels05:02 - Weekly review of returns12:22...

10 Jan 20221h 6min

On today’s episode, Hari Krishnan is joined today by Benn Eifert, to discuss running a volatility fund, the benefits that Benn gets from using Twitter, how to effectively serve clients as a volatility trader, the drawbacks of hedging via ETFs, monitoring market flows, the popularity of short-dated options, implied volatility versus realised volatility, how correlations change over time, balancing family-life with managing a fund, and the new normalisation of working from home.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:A behind the scenes look at running a volatility fundHow to use Twitter as an investorBringing value to clients as a volatility traderHedging via ETFsMarket flowsOptionsImplied volatilityFinding a good work & life balanceFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Hari on Twitter.Follow Benn on Twitter.-----Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro02:20 - How did you end up running a Volatility fund?06:39 - Why did you join a Vol fund instead of a Global Macro fund?09:30 - What do you gain from being on Twitter?11:50 - Explain some of the methods behind how you serve your clients16:19 - What are some of the weaknesses of hedging via ETF products?19:44 - Do you find a lot of value in monitoring the flows into various markets?23:34 - Why is it people are so eager to...

5 Jan 20221h 8min

Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The reasons for trading different marketsWhy Trend Following firms should trade single stocksThe optimum amount of systems to run at the same timeDiversification across markets versus across systemsSkewnessHow to define outliers-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro01:20 - Would you rather trade 100 markets with 1 system, using 10...

2 Jan 20221h 33min