GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

Our guest for today’s episode is Preston Pysh, founder of BuffetsBooks.com and co-host at The Investors Podcast network. As a graduate of both West Point and John Hopkins, Preston is certainly the only person we have interviewed who has both an MBA but can also fly a helicopter. Mostly in the interview we were talking about economics rather than military strategy, but the topic of a US/China war did come up briefly. Preston has spent a lot of time thinking about value investing, and some of the most interesting parts of our discussion centred around the effects that money printing and technological change have had for the traditional value investor. But we also had a wide ranging chat about many other topics, including Moritz’s current favourite: Bitcoin.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERETopics Discussed in this EpisodeValue InvestingThe correct discounting of future cash flowsDemographic changesThe debt cycleQEBerkshire HathawayThe fundamental case for huge returns on BitcoinYield curve controlThe failure of the dollarThe connection between Bonds & Bitcoin pricesWhy countries should be doing their best to accumulate Bitcoin-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Preston on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All...

17 Jul 20201h 4min

Our guest in todays episode is Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 partners. Julian has decades experience in investment banking on both sides of the Atlantic, and is a true original thinker. We had a highly enjoyable conversation with Julian, who has a unique knack of explaining his frequently controversial views in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. He has a wide knowledge of topics as varied as silver and shale oil, and his historical references ranged from the 2008 crash all the way back to the Black Death in the middle ages.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERETopics Discussed in this Episode:The consistency of the US dollar cycleThe COVID related March funding squeezeWhy Risk Parity strategies might be a bad idea going forwardThe many visible signs of ‘the Fourth Turning’ and why global markets are at an inflection pointUnemploymentWhy recent Federal Reserve liquidity injections into the market may not have been part of Quantitative Easing (QE), which could still be yet to comeYield curve controlThe independence of the FedWhy Bitcoin may be a dangerous long-term investmentFinancial repressionWhy government bond yields may struggle to rise againThe history of global pandemicsHow market cycles tend to repeat themselvesThe importance of central bank policies when trying to gauge markets-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Julian on <a href="https://twitter.com/julianmi2"...

14 Jul 20201h 6min

On today’s episode, we discuss the clear link between stock market prices & the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the widening gap between the best & worst CTA performances, the influx of retail money into the stock market, how RobinHood makes its profits despite offering free trading, bond prices and what they may be telling us about the future, how CTAs might now be swinging back to the long side, and how lofty expectations are driving many stock prices unexpectedly higher.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:21 – Global macro review02:42 – Weekly review of performance05:15 – How lofty expectations are driving stock market prices08:25 – What bond markets are telling us about the long prospects for equities13:13 – Why we may be heading for an inflationary environment19:05 – How CTA positioning is beginning to swing to the long side of equities21:20 – Article on downside protection by Mark Zepczynski28:29 – Article on high CTA returns dispersion by Mark Zepczynski30:23 – Unveiling of guests, & more info, about our upcoming mini-series44:47 – Benchmark...

13 Jul 202047min

How investors are easily swayed by misleading titles... costing them dearly.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy Policy<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/"...

10 Jul 20207min

Are US Treasuries as safe as many investor think?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy Policy<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

9 Jul 202012min

Meb Faber explains how to combine Trend Following with Buy & Hold.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy Policy<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/"...

8 Jul 20207min

Meb Faber on why investors are underinvested in Trend Following.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy Policy<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/" rel="noopener...

8 Jul 20206min

How to allocate a portfolio, accounting for market correlations?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy Policy<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/" rel="noopener...

6 Jul 20204min