Election Forecasts Are NOT Polls But Are Valuable
Poll Hub30 Sep 2022

Election Forecasts Are NOT Polls But Are Valuable

Our battleground state polling continues, as we take a look at Arizona and Pennsylvania. In one way, little has changed in Arizona since the nail-biting 2020 results, as the Governor's race is nearly dead even. But what is different is what appears to be ticket splitters giving the Senate contest a very different look. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is looking pretty solidly blue, as Democratic candidates in both races lead with considerable margins. We have looked through the data to understand what groups in each state are driving the divergent results.

Next, it's all about predicting the future as we focus on polls and forecasts. We're joined by Data Editor for The Economist (@TheEconomist), Dan Rosenheck (@DanRosenheck), who easily switches between detailed explanations of how he's built the publication's election forecast model for the midterms to why so many people misunderstand how forecasts differ dramatically from polls. And, he gives the odds on Aaron Judge beating Roger Maris's record.

Finally, let's face the (fun) facts- growing old is a part of the road trip of life, but where will you end up? Do people retire to the place they want to or the place that just makes sense?

Denne episoden er hentet fra en åpen RSS-feed og er ikke publisert av Podme. Den kan derfor inneholde annonser.

Episoder(459)

The Future of MAGA

The Future of MAGA

As the 2026 midterms approach, we're taking on a defining question in American politics: is MAGA the same as Trump, and is Trump the same as the Republican Party? MAGA has become the party's public fa...

14 Aug 27min

Are Data Centers the 2026 Election Surprise?

Are Data Centers the 2026 Election Surprise?

Artificial intelligence may be transforming the way we work, but the infrastructure behind it is creating new questions for communities across the country. As demand for AI grows, so does the need for...

6 Aug 28min

Looksmaxxing: New Name, Same Old Problem?

Looksmaxxing: New Name, Same Old Problem?

Americans are spending more time, money, and energy trying to change how they look. Many adults want to lose weight; millions are using GLP-1 drugs, and the anti-aging industry continues to grow. For ...

30 Jul 25min

Pop Sports Politics: Too Much Mixing?

Pop Sports Politics: Too Much Mixing?

Politics is no longer confined to campaigns and government. It now appears across sports, music, movies, social media, and celebrity culture. In this episode, we explore how Americans feel about athle...

24 Jul 32min

Age and Congress: How Old is Too Old?

Age and Congress: How Old is Too Old?

In a week where one Senator died and another released hospital photos after public questions about whether or not he was alive, we're looking at what Americans think about our elderly political class....

17 Jul 27min

China: Enemy? Competitor? Frenemy?

China: Enemy? Competitor? Frenemy?

This week on Poll Hub, we begin with the complicated relationship between the United States and China. Americans see China as one of the country’s most important global rivals, especially when it come...

10 Jul 27min

Happy 250th Birthday, America!

Happy 250th Birthday, America!

America on its 250th birthday. As the country prepares to mark the occasion, public opinion shows a complicated picture of national pride. While many Americans still say they are proud to be American,...

2 Jul 30min

Pride, Politics, and the Acceptance Divide

Pride, Politics, and the Acceptance Divide

More Americans than ever identify as LGBTQ+, but the story of acceptance in the United States is becoming more complicated. As Pride Month comes to a close, we look at new polling that shows LGBTQ+ vi...

25 Jun 21min

Populært innen Politikk og nyheter

giver-og-gjengen-vg
aftenpodden
aftenpodden-usa
forklart
popradet
stopp-verden
nokon-ma-ga
det-store-bildet
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
hanna-de-heldige
rss-gukild-johaug
dine-penger-pengeradet
rss-ness
aftenbla-bla
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
frokostshowet-pa-p5
e24-podden
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
grasoner-den-nye-kalde-krigen
ta-dokumentar