Preventing an Invasion of Taiwan
ChinaTalk3 Jun 2024

Preventing an Invasion of Taiwan

Taiwan’s government agencies are battered by 5 million cyberattacks every day. China is holding invasion drills at a replica of Taiwan’s presidential palace in Inner Mongolia. Last week, the PLA openly rehearsed an encirclement of Taiwan in so-called “punishment drills.” What happened to deterrence in the Taiwan Strait? Can the status quo be saved? To discuss strategies for avoiding WWIII, ChinaTalk interviewed Jared McKinney of the Air War College and Peter Harris of Colorado State University, who recently co-authored a monograph entitled, “Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait.” Co-hosting today is ChinaTalk’s resident Taiwan consultant, Nicholas Welch. We discuss… Evidence of deterrence decay in the status quo; The difference between constraints and restraints, and how they fit together to form a lattice of successful deterrence; Whether symbolic solidarity with Taiwan does more harm than good; The values and costs of strategic ambiguity; How Taiwan can optimize its deterrence posture; Lessons from the dance of death between Iran and Israel; Objective factors for measuring invasion risk, and whether the world should be scared about 2027; How to analyze decision trees for fundamentally irrational decisions; ... and more! Outtro music: MJ116, 辣台妹 (HOT CHICK) - Official music video: MJ116【辣台妹 HOT CHICK】- (youtube link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episoder(517)

Second Breakfast: We Negotiate with Bombs, War by Brainrot

Second Breakfast: We Negotiate with Bombs, War by Brainrot

Full house with Bryan, Eric, Tony and Justin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

25 Mar 53min

Overfit is now ModelTalk! GPU Smuggling,  OpenAI Cooked? + Open Models, AI Writing

Overfit is now ModelTalk! GPU Smuggling, OpenAI Cooked? + Open Models, AI Writing

Nathan Lambert of https://www.interconnects.ai/ and Jasmine Sun of https://jasmi.news/ catch up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

23 Mar 41min

Second Breakfast: Taking Kharg Island, Terrorism, Grift

Second Breakfast: Taking Kharg Island, Terrorism, Grift

The administration is reportedly considering seizing Kharg Island, and the global economy is beginning to buckle under the pressure of disrupted energy flows. Eric Robinson is a lawyer now who worked...

20 Mar 1h 18min

The Toymaker vs. the Tariffs

The Toymaker vs. the Tariffs

A century-old toy company has taken down Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs with a self-funded lawsuit. But how? Today’s guest is Rick Woldenberg, CEO of Learning Resources, creator of Spike the Fine Mot...

19 Mar 33min

WarTalk: AI, Nukes, Iran and Autonomous War

WarTalk: AI, Nukes, Iran and Autonomous War

WarTalk launches! We chat with Pranay Vaddi (MIT, Sandia, formerly Biden NSC) and Chris McGuire (State, NSC, now CFR) about AI, nuclear command and control, deterrence, and how new military technologi...

16 Mar 1h 59min

Iran: No Save Point

Iran: No Save Point

Two weeks into the US-Iran war, CENTCOM has struck 6,000 targets, but Hormuz is closed, oil is at $100 a barrel, the regime hasn’t fallen, and 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium sit somewhere un...

13 Mar 1h 9min

Why it Sucks to Work in AI in China + Open Source with Kevin Xu

Why it Sucks to Work in AI in China + Open Source with Kevin Xu

Kevin Xu of http://interconnected.blog/ and I did a liveshow on substack! We chat about why working in Chinese AI looks so much tougher than building in the West: less compute, lower upside, more po...

12 Mar 50min

Software Abundance for Government With Cognition's Russell Kaplan

Software Abundance for Government With Cognition's Russell Kaplan

Russell Kaplan, co-founder of Cognition — the company behind Devin — and previously at Scale AI and Tesla, joins the podcast to discuss what “software abundance” could mean for government. Our conver...

9 Mar 56min

Populært innen Politikk og nyheter

giver-og-gjengen-vg
aftenpodden
forklart
aftenpodden-usa
popradet
stopp-verden
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
det-store-bildet
rss-gukild-johaug
dine-penger-pengeradet
nokon-ma-ga
fotballpodden-2
hanna-de-heldige
aftenbla-bla
rss-ness
rss-espen-lee-usensurert
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
rss-dannet-uten-piano
frokostshowet-pa-p5
rss-utenrikskomiteen-med-bogen-og-grasvik