129: Victor Haghani – Optimal Bet Sizing—Lessons From a Biased Coin Flip Experiment

129: Victor Haghani – Optimal Bet Sizing—Lessons From a Biased Coin Flip Experiment

Victor Haghani began his career at Salomon Brothers in 1984, starting out in a research role before joining their prop trading desk. In 1992, Victor left Salomon to become one of the founding partners of Long Term Capital Management… LTCM was an incredibly successful hedge fund, up until 1998, when it failed in a spectacular fashion. Causing the Federal Reserve to step in and organize a bailout, in order to prevent the possibility of a collapse in the global financial system. Victor took a ten year sabbatical after the dust settled, and in 2010 he founded an active index investing fund, Elm Partners. For this episode, much of our discussion is in reference to an experiment Victor carried out (with some involvement from Edward Thorp), on the patterns of how 61 participants would bet on a biased coin. -- Sponsored by TradeStation: Very few online brokers offer the services, the tools and the technology (all-in-one!) – for active traders – like TradeStation do. Learn more and get started here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episoder(323)

320 · Stefan Stadie - Sports Betting and Prediction Markets - Through a Trading Lens

320 · Stefan Stadie - Sports Betting and Prediction Markets - Through a Trading Lens

Stefan Stadie is a professional sports trader at Kero Sports whose work sits at the intersection of equities, sports betting, and prediction markets. After starting his trading journey in equities, S...

26 Mar 1h 16min

319 · Sam Gaer - From the Copper Pits to Crypto Derivatives: How Trading Edge Evolves

319 · Sam Gaer - From the Copper Pits to Crypto Derivatives: How Trading Edge Evolves

Sam Gaer’s career spans several major shifts in market structure — from the open-outcry pits of COMEX to high-frequency trading and now crypto derivatives. Sam began his career as a teenage runner on...

12 Mar 1h 3min

318 · Dave Mabe - The Shift to Systematic Trading — Building Backtested Confidence

318 · Dave Mabe - The Shift to Systematic Trading — Building Backtested Confidence

When Dave Mabe backtested his strategy, it outperformed his own discretionary trading — and changed how he approached everything. In this episode, we discuss gapping breakouts, expectancy, systematic ...

27 Feb 56min

317 · John Assaraf -  The One That Shows Up — The Identity You Practice

317 · John Assaraf - The One That Shows Up — The Identity You Practice

In this episode, Ian sits down with John Assaraf, entrepreneur, behavioral neuroscience educator, and founder of NeuroGym, for a conversation about the invisible forces that shape performance — long a...

11 Feb 1h

316 · The Turning Points That Shaped Great Traders

316 · The Turning Points That Shaped Great Traders

Over the years, we’ve recorded hundreds of conversations with traders across different markets, strategies, and generations. And while no two trading paths look the same, certain moments tend to repea...

29 Jan 24min

315 · Jamaal Ghauri -  From Early Crypto to 0DTE Options: Fast Money, Fast Reality

315 · Jamaal Ghauri - From Early Crypto to 0DTE Options: Fast Money, Fast Reality

We’re joined by Jamaal Ghauri, a trader and fund manager who began his journey unusually early — first exposed to crypto markets as a teenager during Bitcoin’s early adoption phase, before moving into...

5 Jan 59min

314 · In the Middle: The Demons We Trade With

314 · In the Middle: The Demons We Trade With

A quiet, end-of-year reflection on the middle stage of trading — where progress is subtle, patterns are familiar, and the real work happens internally. Sponsor of Chat With Traders Podcast: ●    ...

26 Des 20256min

313 · Doug Colkitt - When Crypto Markets Break: Liquidations, Leverage, and Markets Under Stress

313 · Doug Colkitt - When Crypto Markets Break: Liquidations, Leverage, and Markets Under Stress

In this episode, we examine what actually happens when crypto markets break — how leverage builds beneath the surface, liquidity disappears, and liquidation cascades turn volatility into systemic fail...

16 Des 20251h 8min

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