The Lloyd’s List Podcast: How the future of globalization plays out for shipping

THE world economy is slowing down. Last month China reported that its economy grew by a mere 0.8% in the second quarter compared with the prior three months. The much anticipated post Covid pick up has seen the Middle Kingdom return with a whimper rather than the hoped for roar after the government finally abandoned its “zero-covid” policy in December. Global manufacturing has suffered as consumers came out of lockdowns and began eating out more and buying less home-office equipment. And, although America grew strongly in the first half of the year, most forecasters expect the economy soon to slow. But if recent history has taught us anything it is that nothing in geopolitics or macro economics for that matter, is forever—and trends which look inexorable come to an end. So before the Lloyd’s List Podcast takes a short summer vacation we thought we would leave you with a little long term perspective to mull over on the beach. The renowned economist, author and historian Marc Levinson has been on the podcast before talking about the next phase of globalisation, but that was nearly two years ago and a lot has happened since then, so we asked him if he wouldn’t mind coming back for a catch up. Trade wars, de-coupling, military conflicts, recessions, and warnings of global trade collapse are not in short supply these days, so I wanted to get a view on the long-term perspective Speaking to Lloyd’s List Editor Richard Meade, Marc talks about: • The reality of near-shoring and friend-shoring – both are in the news but both seem to be misrepresented. • How the long-term trend that trade in manufactured goods is likely to grow more slowly than the world economy in the years ahead, and what that ultimately means for shipping which has based business models around growth expectations. • The need for regional trade pacts, partly as a result of the disintegration of the WTO rules-based order and why the future looks more fragmented and regionalized as a result. As ever, if you want to get in touch with your ideas and feedback on the podcast we love to hear from listeners, especially the nice ones. You can find Richard on Twitter via @Lloydslisted, on LinkedIn – just search Richard Meade, but the easiest route is the direct one: Richard.meade@lloydslistintelligence.com