The Lloyd’s List Podcast: How long can Ukraine keep its grain corridor open?

LAST July Ukraine’s deep sea maritime trade dried up with the collapse of the Black Sea Initiative. Within days Ukraine put forward a proposal to the UN detailing a route that would see ships sailing through Romanian waters to reach the greater Odesa ports. In August Ukraine announced the opening of a “humanitarian” corridor, pitching the route as a way to evacuate stranded ships. The initial departures were indeed stuck ships, but in September the first vessels started to arrive from foreign markets and this so-called “new” Black Sea corridor was officially open for business. Since then over 1000 ships have exported nearly 30m tonnes from Ukraine, helping to fuel the country’s wartime economy and getting large quantities of desperately needed grain back on the market. In February NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg attributed the opening of the corridor to Ukraine’s armed forces who have been remarkably successful at pushing Russia’s Black Sea fleet further away from its coasts. “Few believed this was possible just a few months ago”, he said. “But now actually, the export of grain from Ukraine takes place even without an agreement with Russia. So this shows the skills and the competence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.” Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has reinforced the importance of the country’s military in the functioning of the corridor and has warned that Ukraine will struggle to defend the route without additional military aid from the US. While the US announced an additional package for Ukraine worth up to $300m earlier this week, the Department of Defense’s supplemental request which includes roughly $60 billion in military aid is still yet to be passed by congress. Talking on the podcast this week: I.R. Consilium CEO, Ian Ralby Head of sanctions advisory at Lloyd's of London, Chris Po-Ba Bosphorus Observer's geopolitical analyst, Yörük Işik Senior associate at Black Sea Associates, Callum Thomson