Will The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps?

Will The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps?

Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus. Free trial to Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/6bXTD5ApyrdvSv798 Subscribe to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ Commodities are the worst-performing asset class over the past 20 years: https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfsp_20yrsa_fly.pdf Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-6-september-2024/

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Episoder(138)

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro P...

9 Aug 37min

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the...

31 Jul 38min

The Orange Variable

The Orange Variable

Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how ...

10 Jul 35min

The Rebasement Trade

The Rebasement Trade

Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?

26 Jun 30min

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the...

22 Mai 37min

Process, Process, Process

Process, Process, Process

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent focus on va...

15 Mai 33min

Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World

Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis of new info: the Iran/US MoU ...

8 Mai 33min

New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What?

New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What?

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to approach rates, currencies and eq...

17 Apr 37min

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