Chetan Ahya: When Will China’s Economy Reopen?

Chetan Ahya: When Will China’s Economy Reopen?

While China’s policy objectives strive for common prosperity, the country’s strict COVID management poses risks to employment and income, so when might Chinese policymakers start to reopen and recover?


----- Transcript -----


Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be focusing on the expected reopening of China's economy. It's Friday, October 7th, at 8:30 a.m. in Hong Kong.


When my colleagues and I discuss Asia's growth outlook with investors, one of the top questions we get is, when will China reopen and what the roadmap will look like. We believe a reopening will happen not because the rest of the world is now living with COVID, but because the effects of China's strict COVID management are now increasingly at odds with its policy objective of achieving common prosperity.


The challenges of a sharp rise in youth unemployment and significantly lower income growth, especially for the low income segments of the population, have become more pronounced this year ever since the onset of Omicron. To put this in context, the youth unemployment rate is at 19% and our wage growth proxy has decelerated from around 9% pre-COVID, to just about 2.2% year on year.


These issues are further exacerbated by the intensifying spillover effects from weaker exports and a continued drag from property sector. Over the next five quarters, growth in developed markets will likely remain below 2% year on year. The continued shift in DM consumer spending towards services will mean global goods demand will deflate further. And as exports weaken, manufacturing CapEx will also follow suit, which will further weigh on employment creation. As for the property market, the pace of resolution of funding issues and uncompleted projects are still relatively sluggish. With the outlook for the drivers of GDP growth weakening, we think the only meaningful policy lever is a shift in COVID management aimed at reopening, reviving consumption and allowing services sector activity to lift aggregate demand towards a sustainable recovery.


As things stand, several steps are necessary for a smooth reopening. They are, number one, renewed campaign to lift booster vaccination rates, especially amongst the elderly population. Number two, shaping the public perception on COVID. And number three, ensuring adequate medical facilities, equipment and treatment methods in the next 3 to 6 months. We therefore anticipate that policymakers will, in the spring of 2023, with the peak COVID and flu season behind us, be able to proceed with a broader reopening plan. Of course, we think that reopening in China will be gradual, as policymakers will remain mindful of the potential burden on the health care system.


Against this backdrop, we see the recovery strengthening from second quarter of 2023 onwards. In the next two quarters, we estimate GDP growth will be subpar at around 3%. But as China reopens from the spring of 2023, we expect GDP growth will strengthen to 5.5% in the second half of the year.


Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Episoder(1547)

Andrew Sheets: Mapping the Future of Oil Prices

Andrew Sheets: Mapping the Future of Oil Prices

On today's episode, Geopolitical tensions have driven oil prices—and volatility—higher. But a quick glance at 2022 oil futures prices can tell us a lot about the market’s longer-term view.

10 Jan 20202min

Michael Zezas: What’s Next on U.S.-China Trade?

Michael Zezas: What’s Next on U.S.-China Trade?

On today's episode, As a Phase One trade deal nears completion, can investors worry less about the risks of tariff escalations? Not so fast, says head of U.S. public policy Michael Zezas.

8 Jan 20201min

Mike Wilson: Weighing Fed Intervention, Geopolitics

Mike Wilson: Weighing Fed Intervention, Geopolitics

On today's episode, As 2020 begins, central bank moves and reawakened geopolitical risk promise to be key market catalysts. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson details the potential impact on portfolios.

7 Jan 20203min

Andrew Sheets: A New Chapter for the United Kingdom

Andrew Sheets: A New Chapter for the United Kingdom

On today's episode, For three and a half years, Brexit has been a source of uncertainty for the United Kingdom and its markets. Now, with some business uncertainty reduced, a new narrative may be emerging.

3 Jan 20203min

Mike Wilson: 2020 and the Return to Reflation

Mike Wilson: 2020 and the Return to Reflation

On today's episode, why escalating labor costs, deglobalization and central bank policies may mean positioning portfolios toward stocks that benefit from rising inflation.

23 Des 20194min

Andrew Sheets: 3 Lessons from 2019… for 2020

Andrew Sheets: 3 Lessons from 2019… for 2020

On today's episode, What important factors from 2019 could give investors context on the investing climate ahead? Consider valuations, policy and inflation.

20 Des 20193min

Michael Zezas: Markets Mull the “Phase One” Deal

Michael Zezas: Markets Mull the “Phase One” Deal

On today's episode, What will the U.S-China “Phase One” trade deal mean for the global economy, corporate confidence and markets? Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas weighs in.

18 Des 20192min

Mike Wilson: A Trifecta of Positive Catalysts

Mike Wilson: A Trifecta of Positive Catalysts

On today's episode, A dovish Fed, progress on trade and a path toward a potentially orderly Brexit are driving global equities higher but how much of the global recovery is already priced?

16 Des 20193min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
e24-podden
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
utbytte
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
finansredaksjonen
pengesnakk
pengepodden-2
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
rss-markedspuls-2
lederpodden
okonomiamatorene
rss-kantsonen
rss-investering-gjort-enkelt
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
stockup