Commercial Real Estate's Uncertain Future

Commercial Real Estate's Uncertain Future

Our Fixed Income Strategist outlines commercial real estate’s post-pandemic challenges, which could make regional bank lenders vulnerable.


----- Transcript -----


Welcome to Thoughts on the Market, I’m Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the challenges of the commercial real estate markets. It's Friday, Feb 16th at 3 pm in New York.

Commercial real estate – CRE in short – is back in the spotlight in the aftermath of the loan losses and dividend cuts announced by New York Community Bancorp. Lenders and investors in Japan, Germany, and Canada have also reported sizable credit losses or write-downs related to US commercial real estate. The challenges in CRE have been on a slow burn for several quarters. In our view, the CRE issues should be scrutinized through the lenses of both lenders and property types. We see meaningful challenges in both of them.

From the lenders’ perspective, we now estimate that about a trillion and a half of commercial real estate debt matures by the end of 2025 and needs to be refinanced; about half of this sits on bank balance sheets.

The regulatory landscape for regional banks is changing dramatically. While the timeline for implementing these changes is not finalized, the proposed changes could raise the cost of regional bank liabilities and limit their ability to deploy capital; thereby pressuring margins and profitability. This suggests that the largest commercial real estate lender – the regional banking sector – might be the most vulnerable.

Office as a property type is confronting a secular challenge. The pandemic brought meaningful changes to workplace practice. Hybrid work has now evolved into the norm, with most workers coming into the office only a few days a week, even as other outdoor activities such as air travel or dining out have returned to their pre-Covid patterns. This means that property valuations, leasing arrangements, and financing structures must adjust to the post-pandemic realities of office work. This shift has already begun and there is more to come.

It goes without saying, therefore, that regional banks with office predominant in their CRE exposures will face even more challenges.

Where do we go from here? Property valuations will take time to adjust to shifts in demand, and repurposing office properties for other uses is far from straightforward. Upgrading older buildings turns out to be expensive, especially in the context of energy efficiency improvements that both tenants and authorities now demand. The bottom line is that the CRE challenges should persist, and a quick resolution is very unlikely.

Is it systemic? We get this question a lot. Whether or not CRE challenge escalates to a broader system-wide stress depends really on one’s definition of what systemic risk is. In our view, this risk is unlikely to be systemic along the lines of the global financial crisis of 2008. That said, strong linkages between the regional banks and CRE may impair these banks’ ability to lend to households and small businesses. This, in turn, could lead to lower credit formation, with the potential to weigh on economic growth over the longer term.

Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Episoder(1509)

Andrew Sheets: Can Sentiment Alone Drive Markets Higher?

Andrew Sheets: Can Sentiment Alone Drive Markets Higher?

On today's episode, Optimism in markets has risen significantly over the past three weeks. But Chief-Across Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets asks, “Is optimism enough?”

25 Okt 20193min

Michael Zezas: Could “Phase One” Be the Turning Point?

Michael Zezas: Could “Phase One” Be the Turning Point?

On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas explains why a global growth rebound could largely hinge on trade negotiations ahead of the December 15th tariffs.

23 Okt 20191min

Mike Wilson: 5 Pockets of Opportunity for Equities Investors

Mike Wilson: 5 Pockets of Opportunity for Equities Investors

On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says investors may want to steer clear of expensive growth stocks in favor of some defensive and cheaper-priced stocks.

21 Okt 20193min

Andrew Sheets: One Market We Feel Good About

Andrew Sheets: One Market We Feel Good About

On today’s episode, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets highlights the one market in which the currency, government bonds and equities may all be solid defensive plays.

18 Okt 20192min

Michael Zezas: A “Durable Pause” on U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

Michael Zezas: A “Durable Pause” on U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

On today’s episode, Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas says unlike prior tariff pauses, the “phase one” agreement could have durability. However, much uncertainty remains.

16 Okt 20192min

Mike Wilson: How Will the “Phase One” Trade Deal Impact Earnings?

Mike Wilson: How Will the “Phase One” Trade Deal Impact Earnings?

On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says the U.S.-China trade deal is a step in the right direction, but the real story is still the corporate profits outlook.

14 Okt 20193min

Andrew Sheets: Is the Dollar Losing It’s Safe Haven Status?

Andrew Sheets: Is the Dollar Losing It’s Safe Haven Status?

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains how three of the dollar’s most attractive qualities could be shifting right before our eyes.

11 Okt 20192min

Michael Zezas: The Key Variable in U.S.-China Trade Talks

Michael Zezas: The Key Variable in U.S.-China Trade Talks

On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas says when it comes to trade, movement toward a meaningful compromise will likely come down to one fundamental variable.

9 Okt 20192min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
e24-podden
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
kommentarer-fra-aftenposten
rss-vass-knepp-show
pengepodden-2
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
finansredaksjonen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
utbytte
okonomiamatorene
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
rss-rettssikkerhet-bak-fasaden-pa-rettsstaten-norge-en-podcast-av-sonia-loinsworth
rss-sunn-okonomi
lederpodden
arcticpodden