Forecasting 2024: Risk Trends and Predictions

Hear from Moody's Analytics' Cris deRitis about geopolitical risk, cybersecurity, political unease, supply-chain threats, and other key issues that will impact risk managers this year.

2023 was a hectic and extremely challenging year for risk managers. The U.S. regional banking crisis grabbed headlines, with failures being blamed on everything from poor risk culture and ineffective risk modeling to interest-rate volatility – and even to the speed at which news travels in the social media era.

Geopolitical risk and supply-chain risk also contributed to an environment of volatility and uncertainty, fueled by the start of a violent conflict between Israel and Hamas, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea. Technology, moreover, has evolved, with cyberattacks becoming more sophisticated and more prevalent, and with new innovations – like generative AI – bringing both risks and opportunities.

That leads us to today's topic: namely, how will the remainder of 2024 shake out? What changes may be on the horizon, and which trends will have the greatest impact on the financial risk management landscape?

Cris deRitis, the deputy chief economist at Moody's Analytics, sheds some light on what lies ahead for risk managers.

Links From Today's Discussion:

GBI® survey on energy security risk | Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) posted on the topic | LinkedIn

https://www.garp.org/garp-benchmarking-initiative

https://www.garp.org/risk-intelligence/modeling-risk/all

SPEAKER BIO:

Cristian deRitis is the Deputy Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics. As the head of model research and development, he specializes in the analysis of current and future economic conditions, consumer credit markets and housing. Before joining Moody's Analytics, he worked for Fannie Mae. In addition to his published research, Cristian is named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling techniques. Cristian is also a co-host on the popular Inside Economics Podcast. He can be reached at cristian.deritis@moodys.com.