Insight Myanmar12 Jan 2024

Climb Every Mountain

Episode #211: Enze Han, an Associate Professor at the University of Hong Kong, conducted ground-breaking research that analyzes patterns of conflict in relation to geography. His study, "Rugged terrain, forest coverage, and insurgency in Myanmar," analyzed the tumultuous years from 2010 to 2018.

His findings revealed a strategic dance within the country's terrain. Conflict tends to avoid the extremes of high- or low-density forests, following an inverted U-shaped pattern related to conflict and forest coverage. Too light, and the military’s superior weaponry and technology give them too much of an advantage; too heavy, and their superiority is neutralized, giving ethnic forces too much of an advantage. So conflict happens in between.

Elevation is also a key consideration; both rebels and the military favored the mountains. Even though the military historically dominated the Bamar regions, they have more recently established bases at higher altitudes, which are mainly in the country’s ethnic regions and allow them to extend their reach there. This strategic move is couples with systematic deforestation, which not only generates illicit profits for military leaders and their cronies, but also helps flush out ethnic fighters.

Han's study predates the coup, so it primarily examines military-ethnic skirmishes in mountainous and forested areas, but not the Bamar heartland. However, post-coup Myanmar has introduced conflict between Bamar-led PDF groups and the military, which still adheres to the same terrain-forest patterns.

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