Above the Fray

Episode #227: Nathan Ruser, a specialist at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), is an expert in geo-mapping. Building on his experience using satellite imagery to track human rights violations in areas like Syria and Shenzhen, Ruser has begun analyzing the unique nature of the conflict in Myanmar. Influenced by the country’s geographic and ethnic diversity, the clashes here defy conventional understanding, and Ruser has developed a numerical scale to map control levels, often having to assess the situation village-by-village. His methodology contrasts starkly with oversimplified media representations.

Ruser employs ground reports to complement satellite imagery in creating a richer picture of conflict. For example, he has identified helicopter pads at nearly all junta bases, which illustrates their growing reliance on air support for supply and reinforcements. This, in turn, shows how they are perceived as an occupying force by locals. With the junta's diminishing ground control, they are taking a more defensive posture overall, in particular strengthening their urban strongholds, reminiscent to Ruser of the tactics Assad used in Syria. And now, Operation 1027 has further altered the landscape. Resistance forces are taking key locations, which he suggests could indicate a potential overall collapse of the military.

Despite this, the junta’s air superiority and strategic defense of high terrain remain significant. Ruser’s analysis also underscores the West's missed opportunity to engage meaningfully with Myanmar's democratic revolution, hindered by a reluctance to intervene in civil conflicts post-Libya 2011, a stance that has rendered the Right to Protect (R2P) framework largely ineffective.

In closing, Ruser wants to stress that we are now witnessing a sea change in the crisis taking shape before our eyes. “Thousands of kilometers in the sky, on a satellite looking down, you can see the change in tone of this conflict,” he says. “The idea that you can turn a country that has historically been a violent dictatorship into… a flourishing, progressive, great democracy; I think that's an opportunity!” Yet he points out this won’t follow a conventional trajectory as it goes forward. “There's not going to be a movement where there's a slow democratization of the country, where the military enables the country to become more democratic… It's a matter of the military winning or the military losing. Not putting your foot on either side is definitely a hindrance rather than a help.”