Daily Briefing - June 22, 2020

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Jay Pelosky, CIO and co-founder of TPW Investment Management, to unpack his contrarian and bullish thesis on the economy and markets. Pelosky argues that the big plays for 2020 is not in tech, but in commodities, as well as in value stocks and cyclicals. He explains that the overwhelmingly strong stimulus, both in the forms of monetary and fiscal policies, have undergirded demand in a way that will allow it to spring back later in the year. Pelosky also discusses why this is the decade of Europe and ESG, the growing appreciation for EM currencies, and the potential headwinds that might dampen the current broad appetite for equities. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews the Fed’s latest press release and delves into some of their rate forecasts and economic projections. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Jun 202036min

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss market sentiment in light of NBER's recent announcement that the U.S. slid into recession in February. Bennington and Harrison explore whether market participants are betting that liquidity will mitigate the credit cycle's severity and whether this could be a miscalculation that catches investors off guard, leading to a “double-dip” recession. They also draw comparisons between today’s markets to that of the dot-com era, highlight the shift toward momentum trading, and share their thoughts on how durable damage to demand can bring an unnaturally elevated market crashing down later in the year. In the intro, Peter Cooper explains the surge in new online brokerage accounts and explores particular instances of excess speculation by retail investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Jun 202028min

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison map out their framework for the rest of 2020. Ed and Ash look at the steepening yield curve and the continued ascent of U.S. equities. Ed gives additional color to his macro thesis and reflects on his bullish call in April on Europe’s re-opening. Ed and Ash also look forward to the upcoming interviews with Michael Howell and Darius Dale. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at the rising tensions between Germany and the ECB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Jun 202022min

Ric Edelman, chairman and co-founder of Edelman LLC, speaks to Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington about how investors can position themselves for success during this unprecedented crisis. Edelman analyzes the ongoing calamity through the lens of behavioral finance, and gives recommendations for how investors should be thinking about their savings and investments. He recommends that investors take the long-term, thoughtful approach and not worry about short-term price gyrations - but he does prescribe caution for investors who are averse to wild swings. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Jun 202058min

Daniel Zwirn, CEO of Arena Investors, kicks off Debt Week by bringing his unique credit framework to Real Vision. Zwirn argues that a decade of cheap money has worsened credit quality, but that nevertheless there are lucrative fixed-income opportunities on the long- as well as short-side. He warns of the risks he sees in leveraged loans (as well as the CLOs that package them), noting the "asset-liability mismatch" as one of his most severe concerns. Other topics include: regulatory change, interest rate risk, and idiosyncratic plays in energy and real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Jun 20201h 4min

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss a roaring day on Wall Street as the U.S. labor market breathed a sigh of relief. Looking at everything from tech valuations to the AUD/USD trade, Raoul and Ash dive deeper into this jam-packed news day to see whether the economy really is on the mend. In the intro, Jack Farley touches on these themes and previews Raoul’s interview with Gerard Minack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Jun 202046min

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst talk about the trajectory of the global recovery and growth—specifically, they explore the exponential increase in the savings rate, the vicious cycle the Fed might find itself in as they continue to support asset prices, and the potential for "zombification"of corporations through misallocated capital. They also dive into how sentiment is currently driving financial markets, why passive investors may not be prepared for the air pockets of potential drawdowns, and how easy monetary policy actually encourages growth deflation. In the intro, Nick Correa analyzes today’s ECB announcement to expand its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Jun 202039min

Senior Editor Ash Bennington joins Managing Editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst discuss what “returning to normal” means for markets—whether it’s breaking into a new regime or a return to the status quo. They also dive into “the dollar smile,” where bond yields are headed, and commercial real estate in the UK. In the intro segment, Real Vision’s Nick Correa talks about the 1968 influenza pandemic and how the world’s response to pandemics in the past was vastly different from the response today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Jun 202037min